August 1st Was a Bizarre Day in US Economic History

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First, a minor mea culpa as I missed not by a mile, but by two hundred miles in my forecast fro the Bureau of Labor Statistics guesstimate for the July initial Nonfarm Payrolls report. Then again, very few people got that right also in addition to the massive revisions witnessed by the markets last week. Of course, the usual nutjobs who think that the big revisions were initiated to stimulate discussion among the Federal Open Market Committee members to potentially start cutting rates were all over social media and Trump cable television spouting their nonsense.

The reality?

The statistical anomaly was nothing more than a minor blip over the long series and if anyone thinks the July 2025 numbers will hold, then those poor souls haven’t been paying attention. There is zero chance that the Transportation/Warehousing sector added 4,000 jobs and an even bigger joke is the birth/death job creation of 16,000 jobs in the Retail sector.

Thus look for massive revisions to well below 70,000 total no later than the second revision, possibly bringing job creation to the official stall speed levels below 30,000 new jobs per month.

Meanwhile in Trumpland, that bizarre region of Washington, DC where deification is the order of the day, the President began his rantings before the report was even released.

Two hours later, more insane rage posting.

Obviously the President had the numbers before the market opened.

But wait, there’s more, of course.

Kugler decided to get out of the line of fire and take a position in academia which is at least more honorable than a lot of other officials who have worked in government have done. Trump wasn’t going to resist poking Powell however and this war continued on and on all day long with administration officials attacking the Fed.

At just after 2 pm, Trump decided to go after the head of the BLS which further rattled markets:

So in one day, numerous attacks on Jay Powell, good news for him with Kugler resigning meaning he can name a new Fed Chair in waiting, and then firing BLS Director Dr. McEntarfer because he wanted to out-Hoover President Hoover (see firing of Ethelbert Stewart).

Naturally after all that insanity and a sharp market drop, today’s market activity sparked what from the President who once famously said he doesn’t care about how the stock market is doing?