Do NOT Be Surprised If….

WE see a drop of $20,000 in one day in Bitcoin.

And at or close to the same time a drop of over $200 in gold, $5 in silver in one day.

US automakers announce extended shutdowns from early December through the end of January due to slowing sales and bloated inventories.

Coreweave (CRWV) drops below $30 before year end.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) suffers a 15% one day drop and closes below the 5,000 by year end.

Nvidia (NVDA) hits an all time high this week then rolls over to close 30% lower by year end.

The US 10 year Treasury yield is trading with a 2 handle at some point in the next 90 days.

Housing prices are 10% lower by year end.

A major hedge fund defaults awakening the public to the problems in private credit and a major regional bank is impacted.

Retail sales for the Christmas holidays are 5% below last year’s dismal figures.

Jim Cramer screams again on the set after the next Fed meeting. They know nothing has nothing on what he might say this time be it in disjointed cries or just an F-bomb.

Why would old Jimmy boy do this?

Do not be surprised if we get a “hawkish” cut or no action but a cautionary warning from the FOMC meeting on December 10th.

The Bank of Japan offers a “dovish” 15 to 25 bps rate increase. The markets are not convinced and the USDJPY rate approaches then breaks down below the 160 level.

And look for massive revisions in the economic data to the downside in the first two weeks of January by the Trump administration as a warning for Powell’s waning days as Fed Chair.

Tim Cook resigns as CEO of Apple before December 24th.

US markets correct more than 5% in one day at some point, finally causing retail to be actually understand the word “fear.”

Margin calls create another Santa Crash before the Santa Rally leaving retail scared and out in the cold like Tiny Tim looking in the Christmas store window.

A US Treasury auction of 5 years or longer duration suffers a bid to cover ration so bad that CNBC‘s Rick Santelli gives it a rare “F” and equities freak out some more.

2 to 3 banks fail before the end of this year now that the FDIC is staffed and open.

Municipal bond issues start to bubble below the surface and make it back into the news.

The “R” word starts to receive widespread media attention across the spectrum as the recession risks elevate and the doubts in initial government data from the shutdown period are announced.

That should be enough for everyone to chew on. I hope everyone remembers what I said earlier, the big date for a lot of events to wrap up is December 12th. Barring a repeat of 2018 with massive liquidity issues hitting regional and community banks, the markets should rally into Christmas before the correction resumes.

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