Yes, I know, I know, the title is corny and just what is a futburger? More on that at the end of this piece but let us just say that the most interesting party of the day will be the press conference, not the vote, not the commentary, not the endless droning of the financial media analyzing every comma, and definitely not the social media posts in reaction by the President.
Today’s GDP report showing a “strong” 3.0% annualized increase quarter over quarter provides some cover to the Federal Reserve deciding to hold, as most of Wall Street is predicting.
Based on that alone, that’s enough for the Fed to hold the Fed Funds Rate stable until the impacts of the tariffs can fully be measured. If anything they can just cut and paste the first part of the June statement into the one this afternoon and allow the press conference to be where the party starts.
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
Naturally the MAGA regime will go nuts claiming a repeat or similar statement is purely political, but the reality will come out in the press conference as if one actually follows real data, sketchy as America’s is, inflation is not as tame as Trump claims.
The press conference will continue to be a circus with some very unserious people asking stupid questions about the Eccles Building project and the President. The reality no real policy declarations will come out of today other than a hold, oh, and perhaps a lawyerly worded snipe at the POTUS by the Fed Chair.
Thus why I think Jay Powell is cooking up a FUTburger on the grill for today’s event.
So what is a FUTburger?
Allow me to let @grok on X illustrate that for my readers.
