Now that a review of the year that was is over, Christmas has passed, and my arteries being freed of Christmas ham with quality spirits, it is time to produce that annual tradition which creates some interest, some yawns, and a lot of skepticism.
Until I nail some of the forecast and then realize that perhaps quality Irish whiskey is a logical approach to predicting the future versus those sober PHd’s and talking heads on television pumping every AI stock.
Thankfully my mug is too ugly for television so print and radio it is.
I. World Events
1. India and Pakistan begin another war, this time with Islamabad and New Delhi hit by missile attacks bringing that region of the world to the brink of nuclear war as China, Russia, and the USA finally persuade all sides to cease military action.
2. Israel attacks Iranian military outposts again.
3. Russia continues it’s offensive in Ukraine, seizing most of the Zaporizhzhia region and 99% of Donetsk. A new offensive begins in the summer into Kherson, Sumy, and towards Kharkov, with the latter designed to increase a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine.
4. The US removes Nicolas Maduro as dictator of Venezuela but find the new government incapable of suppressing rebellious military units in the jungle regions and along the Colombian border. President Trump commits 10,000 American troops to assist the fledgling government.
5. Cambodia essentially surrenders to Thailand after two months of fighting. The border regions are demilitarized per an agreement as the Cambodian military licks its wounds.
6. President Jolani of Syria is assassinated by a previously unknown militia believed to have ties to the Mossad.
7. Mexico declares snap elections after another summer of riots and oil price declines crush the Mexican economy. The current President is voted out after failing to reign in the cartels or expand opportunities for the majority of Mexican citizens.
8. China copies the United States “Great White Fleet” concept and sends an aircraft carrier battle group on a good will tour around the world. During it’s port of calls, a friendly visit to India shocks the world, along with stops in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, South Africa, Brazil, Peru, Vanuatu and North Korea. The United States declines to allow a port call.
9. The Myanmar (Burma) Civil War comes to a close as the rebels are pushed back into a small pocket in the north of the country and basically starved out of existence.
10. South Africa becomes the next Venezuela as economic sanctions are launched against the nation by President Trump.
11. Russia officially reduces its presence in Syria leaving a minimal Russian Air Force presence but moving the majority of operations to its new base in Libya to maintain a presence in the Mediterranean.
II. Economic Insanity
1. Gold finally pauses it’s relentless multiyear advance around $5100 per ounce. Meanwhile, after a 20%+ correction in precious metals, the anti-silver crowd crows as silver briefly breaks down within technical tolerances before skyrocketing north of $100 before the year is over as physical shortages and industrial demand finally begin to impact availability. Other manufacturers follow Samsung’s lead and start bypassing traditional suppliers to buy silver direct from miners or sponsoring re-opening of idled mines.
2. The US Mint suspends production and sales of the 2026 Silver Eagle and silver commemorative coins for more than three months due to shortages of domestic silver.
3. Due to the price of nickel, zinc, copper and other base metals, President Trump declares a national emergency and prioritizes domestic production of US base metals and processing. Prices globally jump higher another 20% after the declaration putting more pressure on US suppliers.
4. After an inflationary scare in the first quarter of 2026, disinflation then outright deflation becomes the theme of the year. The 2 year yield gets no higher than 3.75% and ends 2026 closer to 2.50%. 10 year yields initially spike over 4.30% only to finish 2026 around 3.50%. 10/3’s finally blow out above 100 bps spread causing many economists to scream the recession is here.
5. Housing prices crash across America anywhere from 15% to 30% on top of the declines in many regions during 2025. Affordability is still the primary issue as credit standards are tightened on non-qualifying mortgages even further.
6. WTI crude oil drops to an intraday low below $45 at some point in mid-2026. For the year the trading range is the low $40’s to mid-$70 area as reduced demand and more pressure is applied to American producers by OPEC+ and Russia.
7. The S&P 500 tops out above $7000 before it finally rolls over upon realization of the deflationary threat and political impotence of both political parties in Q2. The effects of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” begin to impact and stabilize the consumer in Q3 but the threat of a Democrat sweep in the mid-terms keeps markets apprehensive all year long. I can see a trading range of $5400 to $7300 in 2026.
8. Christopher Waller is nominated to replace Jay Powell as Fed Chair. Lisa Cook receives a Supreme Court ruling in her favor thus blocking any further actions by President Trump against Federal Reserve Governors or Presidents for the moment.
9. China rations rare earth magnet and processed rare earth metals exports to the world due to an “industrial accident” and unforeseen bureaucratic delays. US auto plants begin to shut down for 60 to 90 days as a result but that will be blamed on slow sales in the first half of 2026.
10. Auto repossessions top 2009 levels.
III. It’s the Midterms Stupid
1. Despite “government” reports and the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill consumer sentiment for the lower 70% of the population remains suppressed. This anger with embedded inflation, flat wages, and the collections efforts by the IRS against delinquent student loan deadbeats creates a wave election for the mid-term. Using the “economy sucks” theme, the DNC learns a lesson and creates a revival of the faux “Dixiecrat” concept in Alabama, Kansas, and Texas. Republicans lose over 60 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. The shockers are losses by the GOP Senate races in Alabama, Kansas, and Ohio.
2. Florida nominates Paul Renner to run as the GOP candidate for Governor. Despite the attacks by the MAGA wing, Governor DeSantis holds the line and campaigns for Renner to stem the losses. The GOP barely holds on to its super majority in the Florida House and Senate. If this prediction is wrong, Florida officially becomes purple after the mid-term elections as the losses will be catastrophic for the Republican Party.
3. President Trump makes a national address demanding the GOP House and Senate change the 1977 Federal Reserve Reform Act to “modernize” the Fed by expanding the number of regional banks and the Board of Governors. As market turmoil impacts the politics, the GOP stalls out on the idea during the summer leaving the status quo.
4. More Epstein file releases cause “early” retirements in corporate America and in the US Senate.
5. The Grocery Riots of 2026 begin in August as the shortages of certain goods and high prices on some staples due to embedded inflation and beef availability cause the lowest members of society to rebel. The GOP declares it’s politically motivated, and that’s probably accurate, but the media provides broad coverage to influence the electorate.
6. New York City’s Mayor Mamdani’s policies create the great Hedge Fund exodus as billionaires and millionaires flee the state to avoid the taxation plans of his administration also as crime in New York City begins to increase.
7. Ron DeSantis, Brian Kemp, Scott Walker, and Glenn Youngkin hold a secret meeting with numerous other conservatives and financial supporters after the mid-terms in an effort to rebuild the GOP brand post-MAGA as what becomes known as the Wipe Out of 26′ resonates within the halls of power nationally.
8. At least four Trump cabinet members are fired or announce their resignations in 2026.
9. Politically instability in Europe expands with riots and protests in most major capitals.
10. Hungary holds a national referendum to withdraw from the European Union.
11. Japan’s Prime Minister is out of office by June of 2026.
IV. It’s Not Climate Change, It’s The Sun
I don’t care what anyone says, it was a good song.
1. Hurricanes gone rogue for 2026: 16 named storms, 5 majors. Florida may get one on the East Coast to help the real estate speculators in southeast Florida. One other major storm performs a Long Island Express scenario shocking the Northeastern US.
2. The Ring of Fire stays active spreading to Mexico and the US this year. Earthquakes above 7.0 become commonplace.
3. Another major volcanic eruption coincides with a massive solar storm. Just like Tonga, it causes the earth’s rotation to briefly slow and obscures air routes over a large area due to the ash cloud it spews.
4. Chicago sees an accumulation of snow in May.
V. This is Where the Jameson’s Kicks In: Sports and Cultural Predictions
1. Yes, I’m going full homer. The University of Miami wins the National Championship. OK, so maybe I found some hopium to smoke.
2. In an anti-climatic Super Bowl, Denver shocks Seattle to win the Lombardi 17-13.
3. Tampa Bay finally fires Todd Bowles after missing the playoffs.
4. The Tampa Bay Lightning lose to Colorado again in 7 games in the Stanley Cup final. Of course, I pray I’m wrong on this one.
5. CNBC‘s new venture as an independent news corporation away from a parent company with a lot of cash does not work. CNBC World is shut down and broadcast times for the US unit are cut to 5 a.m. until 7 p.m. ET by Q4. 30% of the staff is laid off by year end as cable and streaming business news faces investigation threats from Congressional Democrats for “unusual” trading activity surrounding their formats.
6. CNN International is spun off to a Middle East investment group as the potential Netflix sale pressures Discovery Time Warner spinning off the CNN name for regulatory approval.
7. 15 more regional/local newspapers go bankrupt as the online newspaper business no longer proves profitable in its current model despite the elections and political advertising.
8. X, aka Twitter for us old guys, launches a state focused multimedia operation to allow users free access to news and streaming alternatives to the current mainstream option. This puts further pressure on traditional broadcast radio and newspapers.
9. The BBC ceases all international shortwave broadcast operations as the budget deficits in the UK are too severe to support it. Sad to think that this one realistically could and probably will come true.
10. AM low power daytime radio stations in the United States are on sale by Q3 as talk radio continues to fade and profitability is only a dream. Sub 10kW stations are for sale as low as $50,000 or less heading into Q3 as the cash bleed accelerates and advertising declines further in a stagnant economy.
With this somewhat longer, yet not so boring if you ask me as I crank up Dave Brubeck predictions for 2026, I shall call this one in the bag. As I consume my last glass of Irish whiskey, this author shall also be in the bag.
I wish all of my readers a profitable and survivable 2026.
Choose your positions wisely.
