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Linchpins

The old board game of Jenga is pretty simple to understand. The simplification of the complexities of America’s financial system was explained to the masses in this one scene from The Big Short:

The same concept can be applied to the broader economy. The linchpins of the new economy based on the massive Federal Reserve monetary infusion have created risks that one simple slip up could trigger something worse than a run of the mill recession.

Below are the charts and graphs that this author feels are worth monitoring as the Bubblevision media will not tell its viewers.

I. CMBS

Most people are dismissing the risks of commercial real estate. It’s the nightmare on Small Banker Street which nobody wishes to talk about.

From Trepp via Pensions & Investments on May 9, 2024:

II. DISPOSABLE INCOME

No comment necessary.

III. DELINQUENCY DELUGE

Get it above 4% and look out.

One it gets above 1% good night now.

IV. THE DISPARITY DELUGE

This will not end well.

V. DECLINE IN COMMERCIAL PAPER

A sign?

Pull the linchpin on any one of these and all hell will probably break loose sooner than one thinks.

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