The headlines from the OPEC+ conference are pretty simple:
This means that Russia had to agree to this statement and that the potential for a pre-Christmas market disruption may well fade until January.
The coverage in the Financial Times highlighted this also:
Uncertainty about how those measures will affect Russian crude exports meant it made sense for Opec+ to hold fire, analysts said, with Russia second only to Saudi Arabia in terms of oil production capacity among the members of the expanded organisation.
“If markets move adversely Opec+ will intervene as it has made clear it wants to balance the market proactively and preemptively,” said Christyan Malek at JPMorgan, adding that Opec was also becoming more confident about the outlook for oil demand.
Based on these statements and the uncertainty surrounding the sanctions taking effect could mean a massive equity rally tomorrow in addition to a crash in Brent/WTI oil prices due to the lack of action this morning by OPEC.
Until a determination of what Moscow’s reaction to the new sanctions becomes clear, there is very little to prevent WTI prices from crashing to or below $72 per barrel in trading next week.