Or will America Recover?
IN the period preceding the past 90 days, this author has been dropping hints about the greatest threat to global economic and political stability which in fact is now becoming more of a realistic probability in 2022. The following scenario is not based on some wild speculation; it is a potential outcome due to the decline of American global influence accelerated by the current administration and the failure of the Trump administration to remove the influence of outside powers, including those who hold sway over some of his family members.
Over the past four decades, global stability has been guaranteed by the threat of the imposition of American military force upon those who challenged the supremacy of our forces. As the USSR fell, the global order agreed that the United States would remain the primary stabilizing force for “good” no matter the outcome. If American forces were sacrificed to prop up regimes like the Saudis, European Union, or some small nation like Honduras, the legitimacy of the use of such force was unquestionable, no matter the moral grounds upon which it was undertaken.
Heading into 2022 however, the new problem has arisen:
Can a declining, bankrupt power stop one, two or three conflicts with its forces with no threat to its own territory?
For the first time in US history, as a declining power, the threat is no longer as black and white as “Russia Bad, US Good” or other such nonsense. The threat is real on three fronts and from a geopolitical perspective, there is a hidden fourth front which I shall discuss at the end of this piece.
On to the potential end of the American Empire in 2022, and sadly, most are unprepared for the consequences.
I. Russia Invades Ukraine
This is no longer speculation. The issue is timing. The Russians are spooking the American military to a degree unseen in decades. It is almost as if the the US military-industrial complex needs a reason to justify its existence, however it is not a false threat.
There is absolutely zero chance that the United States nor NATO intervenes during a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Allow this author the time to outline the reasons why it is logical, why the Ukrainian nation (what’s left of it) will be allowed to exist afterwards, and how NATO will be neutered forever.
1. The Russians will only occupy Russian Speaking/Influence Areas of Ukraine
Why? There is a historical and strategic reason. When I first speculated on this idea when the Russian military build up occurred in March and April of 2021, the idea was that this was either an elaborate bluff or a true test of NATO’s reaction to Russian aggression. It was a bluff, thankfully, but now Putin has old of the strategic and tactical advantages to proceed with an occupation of the Russian areas of the Ukrainian nation.
Take one moment and review the map above. Not only would Russia seal up the Black Sea for its forces, NATO would be strategically boxed into a corner and the threat of Russian first use of hypersonic nuclear weapons will cause the weaker members to surrender to the idea of Russian acquisition of the region’s highlighted in gold above.
2. The Energy War
Russia’s ability to freeze out Western Europe this winter with a total embargo of all natural gas and crude oil will force the weaker nations of the European Union to submit to a peaceful solution after the conflict ends. No matter how many LNG tankers the United States can muster, it will be insufficient for the energy needs for the EU heading into the mid to later winter period. Why this time frame? That’s in the third section of this article.
3. SWIFT is Dead
The United States Treasury Department along with the Bank of England has been beating its chest about the idea of starving the Russian economy from the use of US Dollars. Bad news sparky; they already have been preparing for this scenario. Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America have set up the divorce papers and are waiting for a reason to serve them. The timing of this action is not in a vacuum and how this coincides with the late winter becomes obvious to most observers.
The buildup this winter has not ceased as of this writing. As combat troops are rotated out from exercises in the areas bordering Ukraine, logistics and supplies along with armored units are being positioned into the region. Hundreds upon hundreds of videos like the one below continue to be posted by those in the region trying to sound the alarm about what is about to happen.
The online and US intelligence community is sounding an alarm, yet there is little our military nor NATO’s could do to oppose such an action by Russia without starting a potential world war. So why is the timing so important?
First and foremost, nothing will happen before January 7, 2022. The logistical situation does not favor the Russian military nor does offending those who wish to honor the Russian Orthodox Church official Christmas Day.
Secondly, the US and Russia have agreed to “high level talks” in Geneva on January 10, 2022.
Lastly, barring a suspension, the Winter Olympics from February 4th to February 20th will be held in Russia’s ally, China, and an invasion before or during that period would be an insult and humiliation to President Xi. President Putin would never do that, especially after carefully coordinating a final strike to destroy US hegemony on a global basis.
II. China’s Turn at a Modern Pearl Harbor
On December 7, 1941, the Japanese Empire struck at the heart of the United States and failed to succeed. If the follow up waves of bombers and attack aircraft had hit the fuel depots, dry docks, then hunted down the US aircraft carriers, the war’s outcome would have been delayed or changed entirely. Thankfully, the commanders failed to execute their orders and gave America a chance to recover.
The Chinese military elites, after years of working with and studying in America, will never allow that to happen to their nation.
In the time period after the Winter Olympics, the greatest threat will occur on either February 21 or the weekend after. After years of rehearsal, practice, and observation of US Naval activity, the Chinese PLAA and PLAN (Navy) will invoke a blockade of Taiwan followed by a full scale bombardment, mining of approaches, and air/sea invasion. The PLAA will attack with no less than 4,000 airborne troops after two days of missile and air bombardment to be followed up by at least 100,000 ground forces. Although Chinese Communist military casualties will be high, it will succeed in less than 30 days.
Once the occupation is complete, the after effects of such an invasion will crater the global economy, especially as Taiwanese semiconducter and specialized electronic subcomponent output drops to zero for several monts. Taiwan will go dark and become Formosa, a precinct of China as the West and Asia are denied entry, coverage, and trade from that island becomes part of policy via Beijing, not Taipei.
The United States could threaten reprisals such as a trade embargo, but can the US consumer and globalist corporate structure survive a Chinese boycott in retaliation?
I think not.
Hence China will succeed if it so desires and any US military adventurism will result in a humiliation unseen since Bataan.
III. Coordinated Attack
Thus the worst case scenario for 2022 unfolds. But it gets worse.
If a larger picture minded global leader was thinking about hitting America while it is down militarily and economically, this is the time.
The President of the United States is a senile, impotent leader. The Vice-President’s only true global experience is from bumping her head on the desk of the Mayor of San Francisco’s desk while providing lip service. The Congress is full of idiots, the judiciary corrupted, and our economic leadership via the Federal Reserve and Wall Street beyond redemption.
In other words, if one wished to strike, this is the time.
So why wouldn’t Russia and China coordinate their various invasions on the same or close to similar dates to catch the United States off guard?
IV. The Wildest of Wild Cards
Now let’s cure all of the world’s geopolitical problems in one shot.
If Russia is busy in the Black Sea and Ukraine, China is tying down the US military and intel community in the Far East, and NATO is wetting their pants, what would be the wildest card of them all?
Russia has demonstrated this week that they are indeed willing to turn a blind eye to Israel attacking Iranian interests in Syria thus why would they worry about dealing with Israel if they are in a full fledged stand-off with NATO?
Hence Israel should and probably will use it’s strategic submarine forces in coordination with the Saudis and other Arab nations to eradicate the Iranian nuclear program. Would Israel launch tactical nuclear weapons (under 50kT) to attack Iranian weapon facilities. You betcha.
After all, once a week or two of massive geopolitical confusion and conflict with little if any response from an inept US and European foreign policy group, why not? The Israeli government could bring down the Iranians, get a slap on the wrist, and walk away unscathed as the “world” aka, the West, goes full Chamberlain on China and Russia with stern letters and chest beating but nothing more. Israel’s action would be condemned but given a wink and a nod as the House of Saud plus Persian Gulf states thank them for their attack while denying they assisted; even as IAF planes flew over their nations to attack Iran.
Is it possible? I would put this as a plus 80% probability if Russia invades Ukraine and China moves on Taiwan. Everything that the United States has failed to resolve geopolitically and left on the table will be resolved in one swift, deadly month.
Let’s state the obvious, first and foremost:
President Biden will resign, dishonored and rebuked by the elites.
He will be made the patsy along with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson for allowing all of this to occur.
NATO will implode as an effective military buffer to Russia and the European Union will accept the outcome after natural gas and Brent crude prices exceed any reasonable price level. American energy prices will explode to new highs with unleaded gasoline exceeding $5.00 per gallon on the national average. The stock market will crash by over 40% as inflation explodes beyond Jimmy Carter levels.
And that’s the good news.
With President Harris in charge, the United States will lose what little credibility it has left in global affairs. Asian nations will seek a new rapprochement with Japan as they re-arm to become a strategic buffer to China in cooperation with South Korea. India will end up in a follow up conflict with China along the Himalayan border which will eventually end in a draw after thousands of casualties and a Russian “brokered” peace deal.
President Putin will resign by the end of 2022 and a new, more hard line figure will assume the leadership position. The discussion about Chinese “human rights” abuses will evaporate as Taiwan goes dark along with Hong Kong.
Any American idealism about boycotting or threatening China with economic blockades will be met by an isolationist move where Chinese exports to the US will be turned around at sea and any US corporations will be nationalized on the Chinese mainland should the Harris administration decide to press the issue (which they will not). In other words, American dependency is our liability, and the Chinese communists know this.
Israel’s reputation might well get damaged by the global outcry for their attacks on Iran, but the revolution provoked by eradicating most of the Iranian military will destabilize Iraq and Iran for a decade to follow pleasing the Sunni states in the Persian Gulf. Russia will succeed and Ukraine will eventually become a vassal state. Taiwan’s absorption by China will become a footnote in this decade. But the bigger issue is the failure of our American Military-Industrial complex to maintain decades of “peace and stability” as outlined by the idealists after World War II.
The fallout, will be the end of American hegemony around the world and a domestic destabilization unseen since 1861. Will America recover and take a stand?
It’s doubtful based on the current status of America’s political leadership.
For once, I hope I’m wrong.