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The “Gig” Economy is About to Be Up

I do realize that I am about to insult a large proportion of the American population with this article, but a reminder of history is always prudent when hearing ongoing discussions about the insanity regarding the “gig” economy and all of its so-called economic benefits.

Yet all one has to do is remember the dark, dark days of 2009 to understand that no matter how much the media and Wall Street promote the “gig economy” there’s always an angle and 99% of the time it’s an absurd lie.

What is the angriest historic blogger talking about tonight?

Let’s review this beaut of a headline from June of 2009 via the Los Angeles Times:

For the ‘funemployed,’ unemployment is welcome

And yes, I remember watching politicians going on national television claiming how great this was for people because they had a chance to do things like “learn how to play the guitar” and enjoy vacations.

The reality however is that people took jobs during the Great Financial Crisis, be they gig, part time or otherwise, not because they wanted to, but due to the dire economic situation people found themselves in simply trying to survive.

This article from the Saint Augustine, FL newspaper in December of 2009 provides an example of what really was occurring:

Jobless join FedEx, UPS for holidays

So the theory that “funemployment” was shot to hell just in 2009 after the entire banking system almost destroyed the American economy.

The data during that era was just as illustrative of the myth that the GFC gig economy was so great.

The Reality of the GFC, The Self-Employed, and the “Gig” Economy

I know for the historically impaired digital economy MAGA insane people that history is a difficult concept, but let’s review what happened last time when the average soul “had” to take anything they can get to survive.

A Pew Survey from September of 2009 highlighted the following:

Unfortunately for the modern era, individuals 55 and older need to work because they have to also, all due to inflation. Just like they had to when their housing values crashed and the cumulative inflation from 2005 through 2008 had destroyed their purchasing power.

The Gigenomics Myth

The modern day economic theory that the “gig” economy was the future has been promoted by numerous employment agencies, contractor based corporations like DoorDash, Uber, etc., and a growing realization that corporate America is paring down on those positions they believe can be replaced by Artificial Intelligence applications.

Unfortunately for those corporations, most of those apps continue to suck.

The promotion of this idea accelerated after the inflation fueled consumer demand expansion of 2022 through 2024. The idea that people are actually seeking many of these jobs is promoted by not just the corporations that use independent contractors, but also economic necessity.

Thus when the US Census Bureau published their study titled “The Gig is Up” one would think it was a promotional piece for independent contractors.

There is a pattern emerging which seems hauntingly familiar. But that data is from only two years aog.

Reality Meets Gigenomics

In 2007 people started to begin taking any independent contractor job that they could at any price due to the lack of actual job creation which was impacted by the credit contraction and housing crash. So how has this been reflected in government surveys?

That was the “old” gig economy where people of almost any age group would deliver newspapers, deliver pizzas, etc., in a desperate attempt to offset the lost of income due to the collapse of housing and of course, the financial system which started in 2006.

The Myth of the Strong Jobs Market

The wake up call for most people came with the BLS and the job revisions announced in August which shocked the world. For those of who have been tracking it however, it’s been stagnant since last year.

The big moment of awareness for those who watch social media and actually talk to real people offline was this video which is indicative of the reality we’re witnessing in America.

The indication is that the “gig” economy isn’t even able to absorb the influx of both college grads and those individuals over age 60 is alarming as well as the large number of 18-29 year olds forced to enter the gig workforce due to no opportunities after college or high school. The Federal Reserve analysis of the gig economy from May of 2025 highlights the large number of participants:

While that is not reflective of a percentage of the working population as a whole, the problem is that there are too many people seeking self-employed non-professional positions due to the lack of quality job growth in the US after the pandemic.

Retirees are getting buried by inflation while the young can not find any kind of job regardless of collegiate qualifications. This one paragraph from the Federal Reserve paper linked above speaks volumes as to how bad the economic situation is forcing individuals into the gig economy:

Gig activities also helped some people to make ends meet. Overall, 31 percent of people who did gig activities said that without them, they would have trouble making ends meet. Nevertheless, there is evidence that gig workers were more likely to face financial struggles than other adults. Gig workers were less likely to say they are doing okay or living comfortably financially, with the lowest levels among people who did platform gigs, or short-term tasks that people found using an app or website (table 7). Gig workers were also less likely to have paid all of their bills in the month before the survey, to have three months of emergency savings, or to be doing better off financially than a year ago.

Emphasis in the paragraph above was this author’s, not the Fed. So just how bad is this situation about to get? Let’s review some history to get a better picture of the problems that lie ahead.

The Gig is (Almost) Up

If one studies the “modern” era of economic development which can roughly be defined as the time from 1998 through today, a pattern has emerged with each boom and bust regardless of Fed actions, fiscal stimulation, or technological development.

While many self-employed individuals like plumbers, electricians, owner operator drivers, etc., work as self-incorporated companies, the gig workers are generally unincorporated and provide a picture of what happens as an economic contraction begins.

The crushing blow from major recessions however caused numerous people to flee the self-employed group as a whole, especially during the GFC and prior to the pandemic recession. If one understands that those who wanted to find work in 2018 up to 2020 could easily do so, that provides some perspective on the chart above.

What isn’t taken into account is that since 2018, a large number of tradesmen, those self-employed souls in the trades were aging out into retirement. The pandemic brought a huge relief to individuals with the gig economy boom and the new companies like Uber, DoorDash, Walmart+, etc., offering opportunities for people to work while traditional jobs were shut down due to the pandemic.

The problem as highlighted in this story via Business Insider in April of 2025 is a warning for those like the individual in the video above highlights.

Excerpted:

This time, if an economic downturn arrives, things could be different, gig workers told BI.

During her first year on Uber, the Colorado driver made about $66,000 in gross earnings, according to documents seen by BI. In 2024, she earned half as much despite working a similar number of hours.

Even though there has a been a slight uptick in earnings in 2025, the reality that many who decided to attempt a career change into the gig economy haven’t faced one stark reality:

None of these new online companies, not Uber, DoorDash, Instacart, etc. were around for a real recession nor been tested by a sustained economic decline.

While their models make sense during boom times, once unemployment begins to increase and job creation declines, risks to expenditures on elective items has been demonstrably reduced. Thus who is going to order DoorDash for delivery, use Uber to get a trip or meal delivered, or pay the higher prices for grocery delivery when price selection reigns supreme over convenience.

As economic activity declines further, regardless of the BEA fiction produced every quarter, the reality is going to slap these corporations and their contractors in the face. The gig will be up, literally and figuratively, yet their contribution to the pool of the unemployed will not be recognized by statisticians. And that is where the challenge for measuring the health of the employment economy truly becomes a challenge.

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