Welcome to my world boys and girls.
If you were not around in 1979-80 as I was finishing high school and preparing to go to college (insert your age jokes here), silver experienced what us, until this era, the most ultimately satisfying bull move in history. Going parabolic to all time highs and of course those of us who had older wiser souls to coach us were able to take advantage of that era. Too bad I wrapped my profits around a tree, but that’s a story for another time.
So pull up a chair young’uns and listen to some more advice from an old timer.
1979-1990
In 1979 the market did something completely unexpected moving from $6.71 per ounce to over $35 per ounce. On a percentage basis, that is much more dramatic than what happened this year where silver is up 160% plus at the peak last week. But what most do not remember is that there were some major moves to the downside during that bull market explosion also.
The declines of that year depressed us silver bulls. I was young and foolish but smart enough to listen to an old coin shop owner who told me to hold as the top wasn’t in. Upon reflection the patience of holding on for the double from the second dip paid off immensely. And that was long before the “Hunt Brothers” entered into the conversation.
2010-2011
After the Great Financial Crisis, the belief that Bernanke’s printing to infinity would create an inflationary super cycle caused another rally in precious metals and in 2011, it certainly looked prescient as silver soared once again.
After the dip in March of 2011, stories like this one began to appear in the mainstream media:
Texas silver mine gets new life after 1942 closure
Needless to say just over a month later silver topped out and rolled over when markets realized that the money being poured into the system was never going to reach Main Street nor have any inflationary impacts as the great deflation caused by the GFC simply absorbed the excess and allowed the banks to launder away their domestic and international debt obligations.
2025 The Ultimate Bull Run
While today’s silvergeddon nightmare might terrify new investors to the metals markets this is, as demonstrated above, nothing new. Hell, if you’re a former cryptocrazy, this is nothing new for any day ending in the letter ‘y’.
Let us take a quick gander a this year’s action and consider the action thus far:
When these pages say “the double zone” it’s not hyperbole.
The stories one saw in October, like this one from Marketwatch:
Why the silver squeeze is finally about to end, analyst says
truly demonstrated that the understanding of why this physical manipulation and debasement trade will carry through most of 2026. And there is no reason to doubt the current administration’s desire to reduce the value of the dollar by another 10% on global markets in an attempt to “even out” the global trade picture more in America’s favor.
China’s banning of silver exports which takes effect on January 1 is essentially going to remove a large chunk of industrial silver supply off of the markets, leaving Western purchasers having to deal with the Chinese government bureaucracy to obtain export licenses. Those who pay attention to this industry and why it important have offered their opinions on this action, these pages take it as a warning of what is about to come.
The globe is in the midst of a commodity war between the largest economies and Europe is not even a participant at this time. They are more like the stubborn old counterfeiter printing away claiming their paper garbage will last for all eternity, much like the Deutschmark or the Italian Lira.
As we have warned in these pages, a correction is imminent but based on just one day’s trading this looks more like some traders and large houses squaring away their books while taking profits for year end. At the same time however, I still believe a correction of meaning will occur soon and that will be the last buying opportunity for those wishing to obtain silver under $80 per ounce.
Once one begins to see larger mining operations buying junior miners at absurd prices then once again we might actually be witnessing the markets moving towards a new all time high for a while. Until that occurs however as the final confirmation, it is game on to higher prices next year if not even more insane price action with 10% up or down moves possible.
I stand by my forecast for another new all time high in the 2026 prediction thread and some truly terrifying action in the global metals commodity markets as the competition for resources reaches a peak in 2026.