Nothing really matters, anyone can see
Nothing really matters
Nothing really matters to me
Life and BLS data tis nothing more than a Bohemian Rhapsody and without any doubt, America will be singing easy come, easy go tomorrow. No matter what numbers are published at 8:30 a.m. tomorrow morning by the BLS or whoever is running that place, the results are all but guaranteed:
A special thank you to @NorthmanTrader over on X for the inspiration for tonight’s brief prediction article.
Last month when these pages left its readers wondering just what the hell hit America, Erika McEntarfer was the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the headlines prior to the July nonfarm payrolls release read like the following.
May 2, 2025 via CNBC:
U.S. payroll growth totals 177,000 in April, defying expectations
June 6, 2025 via CNBC:
U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%
July 3, 20256 via Politico:
Economy adds 147,000 jobs, defying expectations of a slowdown
Then of course the report hit in early August and the party soured briefly.
August 1, 2025 via CBS News:
Employers added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of forecasts
The revisions however blew up everything we have seen in the prior three months and shortly thereafter Trump fired the BLS Commissioner for making his economic policies look bad. This is like blowing up a restaurant one owns because they found a fly in the soup, but that’s spilt milk under the bridge, so to speak.
This month I think the markets are in for one more surprise but it’s not because they are under pressure from the Trump administration. It is because of seasonality and it will catch markets by surprise unless the survey data is so bad then all bets are off.
Wall Street’s houses have cast their bid with a range from 25,000 jobs created up to 105,000. The median is around 75,000. But with back to school beginning in August, one has to wonder if those have been added to the market calculations for the August data as teachers, substitute teachers, support staff, and school bus drivers return to work adding to the job count and giving it a slight bump.
Enough of the blabber however as does it really matter until EJ Antoni is confirmed and revises all of the data from 2016-2020 and 2025 onward using the Orange Man Calculus formula that job growth really averages 1500% per month (and ode to Trump’s comments on cutting prices of pharmaceutical drug prices by 1500% for those who are not paying attention).
Without further ado, here is JohnGaltFLA.com‘s August employment situation prediction:
Non-Farm Payroll: + 91,000
U-3 Unemployment rate: 4.3%
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1%
U-6 Unemployment rate: 8.5% (nsa)
I shall attempt to comment on this after my morning meeting and raise a soon to be thirty dollar Egg McMuffin toast in everyone’s honor who gets it close to our correct.
Because nothing really matters, to me.
[…] this morning when I re-posted my Bohemian Rhapsody report (guess I don’t have a lot of Queen fans following me), the reality of what reported hit […]