Just a few quick observations before I head into the office today…
Gold:
It needs a weekly close on volume above $1860-$1865 range to move back into a bullish phase. As of this posting at 6 a.m. it doesn’t look good but the day is young and Brandon has time to screw things up internationally.
Silver:
Also needs a weekly close higher on volume preferably above $26 but above $25 will put it into the range to move higher. Iffy as of this morning at best.
Crypto, aka Bitcoin and Ethereum:
Both have had solid weeks so if they can survive this weekend without rolling over and falling off the cliff, they should continue to be excellent short to intermediate term inflation hedges.
Equities:
I just heard the funniest joke; that equities were a “great hedge against inflation” per one of the babbling bullshitters on Bloomberg. Even Jimmy Carter laughed at that one. It’s time to start taking profits in my opinion because peak instability begins after Thanksgiving and into February 2022. It is highly unlikely that any kind of sane debt ceiling deal will be struck before December 24th.
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JG, love your blog. It’s very well-written and some of the best infotainment out there. You would’ve been a top author on ZeroHedge back in the day before they became a rag.
I hope you can elaborate more on your position on the broader equities market, and to some extent large-cap cryptos longer term. It strikes me that the particular style of hyperinflation we’re in is a classic Misesian crack-up boom where higher prices in EVERYTHING are to be expected, with gold (as always) being fashionably late to the party.
If that’s the case, wouldn’t even the blowhards of Bloomberg be accurate here about equities as an inflation hedge, given that the everything bubble encompasses… well… everything?
Or is your contention that financialized assets will eventually experience broad down-turns as the Fed attempts to target their mythical 2% figure and eventual yield curve control without success in 2022?
It’s clear that the world has gone mad with both coal and copper in backwardation as equities rip higher. But at this point, BTC and TSLA are both beneficiaries of easy money policy and trade as such. Both have been bid up amidst a decade-long equities bull and are largely correlated asset classes, which doesn’t bode well for BTC as a genuine hedge against M1 expansion and “bank reserves” (whatever that means post-BlackRock/Fed merger) able to “leak” (i.e. be used by commercial banks) to juke equities in seeming perpetuity.
As an aside, I don’t think $1865 is a particularly important level for spot gold. The fact that gold rebuked terrible CPI prints to break through resistance at the $1830 level means the Fed’s bluff has been called.