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Bad News America: Leave it to Beaver is Dead

God Bless President Trump, some elderly people I know, and those who think we can return to America’s yesteryear.

I grew up as a teenager in the 1970’s. Enjoyed college and the boom of the 1980’s. Watched the evolution into an internet based economy and dissolution of our manufacturing system in the 1990’s after Clinton sold us out via NAFTA and to the Chinese.

This author knows that with the markets in complete meltdown as I pen this piece, what I say here will be ignored by many. But the reality?

Those elderly people, older than me but like myself who remember black and white television, will learn the hard way that the economic policies of this administration, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve can, will, or even possibly return to the America of “Leave it to Beaver” of the 1950s through 1970s.

I. The End of the Manufacturing Job Nonsense

As I outlined in an article critical of the theories of Kuznets and pointed out that Trump’s last reshoring efforts was nothing more than all flash, no pan, the reality is that manufacturing will only return with American companies not by mandate, but because it can be done profitably.

Destroying cheaper goods for the American consumer does not accomplish that goal. Destroying cheaper input costs for intermediate manufacturers only destroys American jobs and small to mid-size corporations creating higher unemployment and putting the credit system at risk.

The reason for the decline in US was obvious to those of us in the 1990s, yet few paid attention. The outsourcing of our jobs, our corporations, and our technology created the conditions we now reap. As Arnaud Bertrand so eloquently posted on X the bogeyman of China is utter, complete nonsense now (excerpted):

The one chart of the two points out the trend, direction, and reality of what happened during the Clinton era:

So please people, quit acting like idiots. China is not the reason for the deterioration in manufacturing.

The voting habits of the lazy American public, wasteful spending of the Cold War victory, and failure to recognize the technological revolution which started in the 1990s which replaced tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs is the actual reason.

II. China Is Prepared for a Trade War, the US Isn’t

Buried within an commentary in The Economic Times of India (via Bloomberg) the reality of how bad the so-called war on China via trade policy will go:

Let Donald Trump unleash his tariff blitz, China has already trade-war-proofed its economy

This excerpt says a lot that the American people’s unrealistic state of denial will not want to acknowledge:

The flow in the opposite direction couldn’t be more different. Most of China’s major imports from the US are intermediate goods for its manufacturing industry, which would be almost impossible for an ordinary consumer to get their hands on, such as LNG and crude oil, silicon chips and chip-making machines, aircraft jets and plastics. The only real exception is cars — and, given the parlous competitive position of the US auto industry in China, wiping out the remnants of Buick, Chevrolet and Ford’s mainland markets might almost be a mercy killing.

In other words, the very intermediate goods which can not be processed inside the US profitably, will now face a higher tariff inbound raising the costs on the finished goods if they are exported back to the US. Smart, right? No, not so much.

It was displayed in these two charts below which exhibit the ignorance of both global economics and the US supply chain by the current administration.

As anyone can see, we import primarily consumer goods which afford the middle class to continue expanding its large purchases for major capital items, like cars and homes, with little risk of systemic or supply chain inflation impacting discretionary spending.

So what does China import primarily from the US?

Enough about China.

III. A Failure to Grasp Reality

After four years of persecution by the Biden junta, unseen since the post-Civil War period in our country I might add, the brand new Trump 2.0 appears to have elected to burn it all down if he doesn’t get what he wants. Today’s “Truth Social” postings exhibit this characteristic which is great for a fighter, not so hot for the so-called leader of the free world.

I’m pretty sure that an 80 year old retiree losing 50% of their retirement to “hanging tough” will go over like a fart in church.

But it only got worse as this quote via the Washington Post story from early this morning made the rounds (via IntelTower on X):

This should be a clear sign, along with all of the other rhetoric from his administration today, especially Peter Navarro, that there will be no negotiations until the US economy is potentially irretrievably broken.

IV. Ward, You sure were hard on the Beaver Last Night!

This is where the danger comes in. The idea of returning to single income, family of four, expanding demographics and sustainable lifestyles as such died when the idiot Democrats and equally as idiotic Republicans decided to spend our nation into oblivion and destroy America’s future.

Yet here we are after replacing a senile insane family with Captain America, let’s save our nation, MAGA, MAGA, MAGA, facing an almost equally as insane prospect:

A multiyear economic depression where deflation becomes a systemic issue.

On paper, a little deflation is good. If we had the self-discipline to repair our broken economic and education system along with restoring morality to the degree of basic ethics even, all by October of 2026 this author might have a little hope.

But the behavior and ignorance of the President’s advisory team, Bessent being apparently pushed to the outside, should terrify everyone in the world.

Thus the most rational member of the economic team has been given a secondary role, however he is still out on television pushing the line that the tariffs are necessary to achieve their economic goals. If one is to believe he has any influence, he as to be warning the administration that at some point our country’s credit vulnerability will eventually be weaponized against the United States in a prolonged trade war with the world.

V. Conclusion

Nations which have long ago abandoned any precept of a trade dispute with the US were swept up into the retaliatory nature of the announcement a few days ago. For example, Switzerland which has virtually no tariffs on inbound US goods was zapped just because the US imports more watches, gold, and Swiss chocolate than, uh, er, Fords (I guess) to their country.

Yet here we are.

It is not so much that we announced blanket tariffs on the world. It was the shocking nature which exhibited professional incompetence and a lack of consideration for those nations, like Israel and Switzerland, that have been long time allies or trading partners with little ill-will demonstrated towards the United States.

The perception that a trade deficit with China and other countries are the problem is a failure to look inward at decades of slothful inefficiency, economic ignorance, outright corruption, and over financialization of our economy versus promoting instruments of actual growth and expansion.

The good news is that the Trump Trade War will address these issues.

The bad news is the cost could be a six year plus economic depression which obliterates over 30% of our nation’s wealth.

Enjoy.

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2 Comments

  1. Zetetic Zetetic 04/06/2025

    Last time the markets burned, I was listening to your show. I am not certain we will see the same landing this time. Intentionally crashing other countries' boosted economies will lose friends quickly.

    • johngaltfla.com johngaltfla.com 04/12/2025

      Unfortunately, crashing our dollar and destroying our sovereign credit isn't going to help us either.

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