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Even When I am Wrong, I Might Be Right

I know, I know, dumbest headline ever.

On FinTwit (X for geeks) and in these pages, I have long predicted a 50 basis point cut which was supposed to happen today.

Instead, Jay Powell and his Clown Posse said “nah, let it ride and screw the poors” by keeping the Fed Funds Rate frozen again despite massive indications in the employment data that the jobs economy is deteriorating.

Despite a bizarre CPI report from the B(L)S this morning which seemed to indicate that food costs, utility costs, rental costs, home insurance costs, car insurance costs, sigh, etc., inflation was flat.

I guess that’s true “because they said so” but in reality the average American knows better so the political angle of these reports is about as obvious as drunk people imitating President Biden dumping something else in Normandy.

Ahem, I digress.

I missed the call. I admit it. I’m not perfect.

I honestly thought that lying weasel Powell would copy his hero and try to bail Senile Joe out with rate cuts in June and July just like Volcker did for Jimmy Carter in 1980. Instead, he came out on stage, pronounced a lot of gobblygook, claimed a sort of kind of victory over inflation, and said in summary (sort of) “screw the poors, get rich losers.”

In reality it’s the wealthy now in the crosshairs.

Because refinancing those insane commercial real estate investments they piled into just got one hell of a lot more risky.

Which of course means firing more poors to balance things out in that universe.

Enjoy the ride world, a hard landing is now guaranteed in late 2024, early 2025.

And if you have the risk appetite, shorting the regional banks via the $KRE or individual issues (do your homework) might be a seriously profitable trade in the intermediate term regardless of who wins in November.

Got gold and silver? If not, consider it.

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