Alright readers, cut me some slack. It’s early in the morning and I haven’t started drinking heavily, well, yet. After breakfast and when I finish this thread, well, all bets are off after my third bloody mary.
To say that 2021 will be missed will be like stating 2020 was a great year also; in other words, GOOD RIDDANCE. As far as personally, business was great, living in Florida was free and liberating, and the ammunition prices finally started to drop locally so practice is practical once again.
In two prior threads I pointed out the dangerous position of our markets and why I think the S&P 500 has a serious potential for a 61.8% or so decline towards the 1830 level for an intraday low. Needless to say the domestic political disruptions of such an event in addition to the wealth destruction of the Yute gamblers playing on Reddit and message boards will be massive. Maybe, just maybe, I will start getting better service as they filter back into the workforce when I order coffee at Dunkin’ Donuts.
Thus I shall limit my economic projections and hit the remainder of the predictions in short order, limiting the number to something tolerable or until I need to mix another Tequila Sunrise.
I. Politics and Global Events
– Russia invades Eastern Ukraine and seizes almost all of the territory of Russian speaking individuals. The Ukraine government falls with a military coup and an armistice is reached solidifying the lines and “new” international border. The United States offers up only token sanctions in retaliation.
– China seizes Taiwan and several surrounding island territories after the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. The United States again does nothing and is castigated by its Asian allies.
– Australia and Japan form a new defense alliance. The Japanese Constitution is amended to remove the first use of force and allow for acquisition of nuclear weapons. South Korea considers joining the new defense union by year end.
– Latin America elections in 2022 result in a “red” wave; not like the American GOP red, but a Marxist revolution leaving very few nations without an outright communist government and hard core socialist leadership at a minimum. US influence in the region wanes dramatically as the traditional allies view America as a country in decline.
– President Joe Biden quietly resigns during a prime time television address on December 31, 2022 at 8 p.m. Eastern Time after a humiliating year of political and global embarrassment and the Democrat Party blaming him for their massive losses in the November election. His approval rating on even the most liberal polls is no higher than 32%.
– Boris Johnson is removed as Prime Minister after the global economic collapse which occurs in the summer of 2022.
– The Democrats lose 57 seats in the House of Representatives, 5 US Senate seats, 4 more governor’s races including a huge upset in Michigan during the November elections.
– In the Florida races, the new redistricting helps the GOP pick up a net of 6 House seats as Governor DeSantis wins re-election handily over Charlie Crist by 11%. Democrats in Florida panic as the state races indicate further losses in the state legislature in a voter backlash against those politicians who wanted New York style mandates and restrictions during the pandemic. Constitutional Carry finally passes in Florida.
– Hillary Clinton forms a Presidential exploratory committee for the 2024 race.
– After the election, Nancy Pelosi announces her retirement. Speculation is she will maintain her San Francisco home for visual purposes but reside primarily in her new spread on Hobe Sound, FL.
– The Supreme Court overturns most of Roe v. Wade leaving the heartbeat issue up to each state but a maximum of 20 weeks will become the standard for Federal abortion policy per the court. Riots ensue as staged by the extreme left as a result.
– The Supreme Court will uphold Trump’s Executive Privilege claims as legitimate because the Biden administration nor Congress have overturned President Obama’s executive order on this matter. All of the contempt of court indictments against those who refused to cooperate with the January 6th show trial in the House are dropped by the Department of Justice.
– Senator Schumer will attempt to pass a modified version of BBB, but it will fail. In retaliation, he attempts to remove the standing filibuster rule and that vote fails also. The Senate and House, much like Biden, become lame ducks until after the election with little being accomplished.
II. Non-Political Global Events
– A major earthquake will strike the United States either in the Mid West or along the West Coast of California (major being 7.5 or larger).
– The Western Hemisphere will experience a record number of hurricanes and tropical storms with 32 named storms, 13 hurricanes including 6 major storms, 19 tropical or subtropical storms. The United States experiences at least one major hurricane hit.
– The earliest blizzard on record will hit the US in late October.
III. Economic Insanity
There will not be much to cover here except for the loose ends I did not review in my The Economic Nightmare of 2022 earlier in the week.
– The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield will record a record low of 0.94% in the later part of 2022 after hitting a terrifying high of 2.73%.
– Bitcoin will crash with the equity markets to at or near the 20,000 level before rallying above 85,000 towards year end. Regulatory crackdowns on cryptocurrencies are accelerated in Turkey and the European Union. Ethereum finishes the year above 20,000 becoming the new crypto darling.
– TINA and FOMO for US financial assets become GOAT:
Get Out of America Totally
– The Federal Reserves makes an emergency policy decision to raise rates to 0.50% and sell MBS in reaction to shocking inflation numbers in the first quarter of 2022. By year end, they are buying more US Treasuries and actively buying ETFs to stop the complete crash of the equity markets to pre-2015 levels. Jay Powell announces his retirement in November 2022 due to personal reasons.
– Estimated GDP growth will happen in the US (as measured by the BEA) at the following pace:
Q2 + 0.1%
Q3 – 3.9%
– The Google search term and news articles for “food shortage” becomes a theme by Summer of 2022 in many U.S. cities. A great aluminum can shortage hits in Q2 creating panic in the soda and beer manufacturing industries.
IV. Cultural Insanity and Sports
– The Tampa Bay Buccaneers win back-to-back Super Bowls. Deal with it.
– The Tampa Bay Lightning win their Threepeat. The Stanley Cup keeps its tan for another year. Deal with another boat parade you losers.
– MLB intervenes to force the owner of the Tamp Bay Rays to sell the team.
– The University of Georgia wins the NCAA Football National Championship defeating the University of Cincinnati. Take the over, even if it is 65 points.
– CNN fires its entire prime time lineup. The new ownership elects to save money and adopt a Sky News type of format with 30 minutes of “hard” news and thirty minute opinion/feature shows. This attempt to recover its tarnished reputation meets with limited success initially. The 2022 election coverage sets a higher standard with more balanced reporting than Fox News.
– Sean Hannity permanently moves to Florida after the New York Governor gets a millionaire surcharge tax passed. FNC considers relocating to Dallas, Orlando, or Tampa.
– NewsMax merges with OANN in attempt to save the network after Chris Ruddy’s liberal biases destroys his network’s credibility and most of the talent leaves his operation.
– Over 100 A.M. talk radio stations permanently go off the air; another 200 or so change formats. A.M.(medium wave) radio begins to die in America once and for all with the loss of Rush Limbaugh’s influence.
I think that’s enough for one year. Hopefully some are entertaining, some will help my readers actually prepare for a most turbulent period in our history. I shall address the Covidiocy, after I’ve had a lot more to drink to deal with it, just one more time later today. In the mean time, bottoms up and Happy New Year to all!