You can’t hide your lyin’ eyes
And your smile is a thin disguise
I thought by now you’d realize
There ain’t no way to hide your lyin’ eye
The Eagles said it best.
One more month, one more day of lies from our political elites, and some real whoppers from the state arm of the ISTAT. My readers can Google that one themselves.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been handcuffed for over 20 years but the shall we say creative creativity recently is only topped by the circus tent on the White House lawn and insane postings by our fearless leader on his dying social media site.
The summary from the BLS webpage doesn’t do justice to what is under the hood:
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - MAY 2026
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May,
after rising 0.6 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for energy rose 3.9 percent in May, after rising 3.8 percent in April and 10.9 percent in March. The energy
index accounted for over sixty percent of the monthly all items increase. The index for shelter also increased in May, rising 0.3 percent. The food index increased 0.2 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.1 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May. Indexes that increased over the month include
communication, airline fares, medical care, personal care, and recreation. Conversely, the indexes for motor vehicle
insurance, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles were among the major indexes that decreased in May.
The core CPI is the most unbelievable statistic of them all, but more on that later.
The question once again is hard to calculate without digging deep into statistical analysis and knowing the basis for the modeling using the roughly 40% imputation for CPI that the BLS uses. For a rule of thumb however, I would say that the headline reading overstates or understates CPI-U year over year by a massive 0.5% (rounded). If the BLS would share the data for which categories they use estimated price variations, one could use their own formula and calculate a much more accurate picture of what really is happening to the American consumer.
But for the sake of argument, let’s take one section from the BLS table, many American’s favorite food the hamburger, aka, ground beef.
According the BLS statisticians, prices dropped 1.2% month over month. Yet here we are in June 2026 and prices are now at a national average of $7 per pound; hardly a “decrease” in any way, shape, or patty.
From YahooFinance on May 15th:
The average price of ground beef in the US is now at a record $6.90 per pound, according to new data this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
On a nonseasonally adjusted basis, ground beef prices have eclipsed $7 per pound for the first time in history.
Now I’m not a statistical expert, but I’m pretty damned good.
And last I checked an increase from $5.99 per pound to over $6.90 per pound is a tad more than 1.2%. So it seems that the B_S has imputed some mathematical political voodoo to snow job the consumer with a stale school lunch room burger and convince the masses that it’s the same as a juicy 5 Guys grease bomb.
Meanwhile, to an agency that is trying to present a much more realistic picture of inflation, The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s Sticky CPI continues to rise and on annualized basis is now at 3.1% and rising:
When both numbers move in parallel, nothing good happens because the Atlanta Fed uses a model more reflective of consumer reality.
Is this another example of driving with only the rear view mirror? Of course.The reality is that the average person does not care about the falsehoods like medical insurance allegedly declining in price 0.6% or auto insurance declining in price as they pay more. The poors trapped in the lower leg of the ‘k’ only care that they are running out of money and looking for some politician, not a statistician to blame.
The very lies used to reassure equity and bond markets will soon have horrific political consequences. Or not.
As most Americans are quite happy to watch their favorite streaming service, smoke or intake their favorite prescription, and live off taxpayer money like a zombie month to month.
There ain’t no way to hide your lyin’ eyes
Honey, you can’t hide your lyin’ eyes
