This humble author doesn’t want to make his readers tremble in anticipation or fear, but 2026 has started out pretty much as I sort of thought it would.
Almost six hours after I published my JohnGaltFLA’s 2026 Drunken Predictions the first prediction hit a bit early, but not to any surprise of my readers:
Thailand, Cambodia agree to ‘immediate’ ceasefire
Of course the prediction was pretty much spot on:
5. Cambodia essentially surrenders to Thailand after two months of fighting. The border regions are demilitarized per an agreement as the Cambodian military licks its wounds.
Wait, what my readers might say? The US media told us it was a Trump phone call that stopped the fighting. Not so fast my friends as the truth is the peace was set in motion by the behemoth to the north in the region. Even Singapore’s Strait Times recognizes the role of the Chinese Foreign Ministry in bringing about a lasting ceasefire:
China steps out of diplomatic shadows to take credit for efforts on Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire
What was the money quote from that article linked above? Try this one:
But as China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on Dec 29 hosted his Cambodian and Thai counterparts for three-way talks in the immediate aftermath of a newly brokered ceasefire, Beijing appeared not just ready for its share of credit as peacemaker, but also eager to assert that its steadier, lower-key diplomatic approach was, in fact, superior to Washington’s.
“China’s efforts to promote peace and dialogue never impose on others or overstep its bounds,” Foreign Minister Wang told his Thai counterpart Sihasak Phuangketkeow in a separate bilateral meeting on Dec 28, in China’s south-western Yunnan province.
There’s the key to the future for Southeast Asian relations as many nations now recognize the mess our State Department has left around the Middle East and Africa so the level of trust in the US is limited to non-existent at best.
Prediction number two came true in the early hours this morning on January 3rd as everyone slumbered:
4. The US removes Nicolas Maduro as dictator of Venezuela but find the new government incapable of suppressing rebellious military units in the jungle regions and along the Colombian border. President Trump commits 10,000 American troops to assist the fledgling government.
The first half of that was easy to predict a month ago. Someone within the Venezuelan military obviously sold out Maduro to avoid bloodshed and refused to activate or maintain any alerts to oppose the US coming in and snatching the thug Maduro.
For over 100 years now, this is how the US government has behaved in this region with mixed results at best. Cuba and Nicaragua being the two most glaring recent failures and the inability of Bill Clinton, George W Bush, and Obama administrations to react to Chavez’s actions in Venezuela in the late 1990’s being the reason we ended up with this action today.
So now we’ve broken it, thus we’ve bought it.
Let’s all enjoy the history unfold and see if we end up in another quagmire of our own making, this time in jungles closer to home.
Meanwhile, everyone had best buckle up if I get more of my predictions correct as that means 2026 will be one hell of a wild ride.
