The most amazing thing that I have witnessed in my lifetime is the evolution of data reporting by governments, corporations, and the rah-rah news media be it financial or political.
Today was no different than anything we’ve seen for almost thirty years now.
Instead of just reporting the raw data which is somewhat easily accessible by reporting the actual numbers as transmitted using state and local government sources, it’s more important to promote the politically infused “seasonally adjusted” material to promote a ‘big’ number versus reality.
So let’s break down first the graphics the CB reported on their website and why this is laughable:
Looks impressive. Chop the graph on the right to demonstrate the post-Powell easy money period caused a spike and then illustrate that the annualized seasonally adjusted rate really isn’t that bad.
Or is it?
Let’s dredge up one of my old data series that I used to publish and using the Census Bureau own data to look at the chart of new home sales as spelled out in the world the rest of us live in, you know, the non-seasonally adjusted world:
That number is a paltry 51,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis for May of this year.
But for fun, let’s write some of this author’s favorite headlines as May is one of the months considered “peak” housing sales season.
51,000 in May of 2026 is the lowest May sales reading since 2015’s reading of 47,000.
The population of the US in 2015 was approximately 321 million people.
The population of the US in 2026 is approximately 349 million people.
The era of the slow but steady growth is over and the Powell induced asset and housing bubble has popped. Unless American citizens suddenly start seeing massive increases in household income this chart will continue to crash and possibly retest 2012 lows on the pace that is it at. It will reach those numbers faster if a full blow recession is recognized and hits the remainder of the upper “K” economic strata soon.
Meanwhile, enjoy your ARM’s.
