God bless the TACO.
If President Trump had not backed off the tariffs against the globe and basically surrendered to the reality that 50% + tariffs against China were not realistic for the US economy to absorb, odds are the prospects of a rapid, cascading supply chain induced crash were upon us.
Now that he has eased off of the accelerator, imports are flooding into the US via the Pacific and East Coast ports which should provide an increase in intermodal and over the road (OTR) freight shipments in the weeks ahead.
For example, here is the incoming port TEU schedule for Los Angeles/Long Beach through the next three weeks:
That schedule will change by next Monday, probably normalizing to higher levels above 120,000 as ships are able to unload in Mexico and move faster to the Los Angeles or Long Beach ports.
This is bullish for the next 4-6 weeks for the railroad and trucking industry as all of these containers filter through the domestic logistics systems.
But is the long term all that bullish for a continued economic expansion?
The following article from the Commercial Carrier Journal caught my attention this week:
Trailer net orders continue to fall, order cancellations surge in May
This article was published on Monday, June 23rd and has some excerpts worthy of sharing:
Trailer net orders last month declined 34% month-over-month to 6,738 units, exceeding normal seasonal trends, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence.
Despite the decline, May net orders were up 3% year-over-year against a weak May 2024.
Everyone with more than two brain cells recognized that last summer was an extremely slow period for the transportation industry. But for this period of time to validate an extension of the great freight recession is deeply concerning.
More:
Order cancellations spiked to 37.6% of gross orders in May, according to FTR, the highest rate in a year and significantly above from April’s 20% figure. Cumulative net orders for the 2026 order cycle (September 2024 to May 2025) totaled 161,657 units, down 10% from the prior year, averaging 17,962 units per month.
Ouch. And that extends to the financial reports. Let’s take a look at Wabash National’s quarterly report issued on June 3rd:
I know this is just a “sampling” of the granular data that yours truly likes to analyze. However if one thinks that the trucking recession is over, why would trailer orders, something which takes 90 to 120 plus days lead time to fulfill, continue to drop off of a cliff?
To make matters worse, FTR Intelligence which tracks Series 8 new truck and trailer orders in addition to other trucking and logistics data validated Wabash’s report with their own tracking data from 2024 vs 2025:
This is not an indication of an economy expanding nor planning on an economic expansion in the next 6 to 12 months.
This is also reflected in Series 8 Truck orders from May which means that trucking companies do not see a bottom to the freight recession despite the relief from some of former President Biden’s absurd EPA regulatory plays. From Transport Topics on June 18, 2025:
Class 8 Truck Sales Drop 5% Year Over Year in May
Despite a seasonal month over month increase, the year over year decline is notable:
For those who think that the economy is about to “boom” or that the stock market is the economy, I shall give, one more time, some age old advice.
The future is Logistics.
Pay attention to what is happening.
