I always wondered what Trump had typed on that piece of paper after he left the airplane from Munich.
As we head into Wednesday morning in Asia, to say that today’s Veteran’s Day holiday in the US was boring would be a massive lie and understatement. Gold has rebounded nicely after the hard sell off and looks poised to leap higher but is it due to the weakening US economy or other factors?
This author is now firmly in the geopolitical other factors camps and allow me demonstrate how the potential, notice the key word, for massive economic and political disruptions around the world is a strong possibility.
First off as this chart gold demonstrates, the shiny safety trade is poised to skyrocket higher if the events listed below suddenly skyrocket into relevance.
As I’ve just stated earlier this week, realistically it should begin another consolidation period through year end but when global disruptions occur, all bets are off.
So let’s take a moment and look at the three possible conflicts which could erupt with short notice.
I. Cambodia-Thailand
This excerpt from a story in the Bangkok Post says it all:
Needless to say this comes a day after Cambodia claims that Thai military units illegally seized 20 Khmer soldiers.
Right now this is a small intensity conflict with some reports of small arms fire but nothing heavy like was seen in the past. Now that both sides have repaired and rearmed, it will be interesting to see if the US tries to intervene again or if the “peace” agreement was just to placate President Trump with a photo op before a more intense conflict began.
II. India-Pakistan
This is the big one. And things have heated up dramatically. First a terrorist attack hit the capital of Delhi on Monday killing 12 and wounding 20.
The in almost a perfectly timed response, a blast hit Islamabad in Pakistan:
Needless to say, rumbles of a renewed conflict of far greater intensity are already being heard in the region.
III. USA v Venezuela
Ah for this to only be a friendly soccer match.
Unfortunately it would appear President Trump might use the “war on drugs” as an excuse to take out a thorn in the rear of American foreign policy for the last 20 plus years. Today is was reported the last key piece of the US naval battle group is now in position:
Despite the fact that the Venezuelan conflict would militarily last less than a month, the economic and political ill will it will generate in Latin America would be palpable.
My warning is this simple for my readers:
If these three candles are lit at the same time, one does not have enough physical gold or silver in their personal possession.
Good luck to everyone and let’s hope calmer heads prevail.
