The first Friday of the month is tomorrow which means of course the Bureau of Labor Statistics gets to release the monthly revisionfest also known as the monthly non-farm payrolls report.
The median expectation is for job growth to increase by an estimated 125,000 jobs in September. Despite the massive revisions for the prior two months of -61,000 in June and -25,000 in July, there is still this weird feeling that job growth is “stabilizing” according to the financial media. Unfortunately the United States is in the middle of the political season so all data releases can and should be viewed with great skepticism.
September is traditionally a strong month for hiring due to retail and education seasonality, however the persistent decline in manufacturing hiring might reduce the real number after election day revisions when no one is paying attention.
Thus these pages predict the following:
Non-Farm payrolls + 103,000
U-3 Unemployment rate: 4.3%
Labor Participation rate: 62.8%
U-6 Unemployment rate: 8.0%
The big one however is these numbers:
Average hourly earnings month-over-month only up 0.2%
Average weekly hours: 34.1
So the market will be further confused by this report, probably surge initially and then end the day declining somewhat because of geopolitical events and increasing oil prices as fear of a major strike creates concerns heading into weekend.
The revisions after the election will tell some of the truth, not claims, not JOLTS, etc. Follow MacroEdge.net for the real data and a more accurate portrayal of what is happening in the economy.
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