But Where oh Where Have I Seen this Before
Before the numerous critics of, as we say in the South, ‘this here website’ go into overdrive saying this time it’s different, allow me to present some sound reasons to realize that perhaps some aspects of that argument are valid, but most are the vacuous claims of permabulls who refuse to recognize history, cycles, and the reality that risk to excess leads to corrections of far more excess.
1. This pattern has happened in the past. Saying it’s different because of “retail” investors or that our society has become more sophisticated due to more retirees being invested in the market is the terminology used to cater the terminally stupid.
2. There is an inherent desire for individuals with inside knowledge to liquidate their holdings to the most gullible at tops. Don’t believe this author? Look at the patterns of insider selling recently:
🚨 INSIDERS ARE STILL SELLING
— NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) April 15, 2026
Only one buy out of the top 60 insider transactions.
It makes you wonder who’s buying and providing them with exit liquidity. pic.twitter.com/HVBhL0Gi7n
And please, don’t ignore this gem from the CEO of JP Morgan Chase who never sells at the bottom:
3. The US Treasury has begun investigating alleged issues within the the Private Credit and Equity markets. This pattern has been seen before, usually after the fire has already engulfed half the economy (see: 2007, CDO, CLO, derivatives fiasco).
4. Lastly, the headlines today versus the past presented without comment:
That’s from Marketwatch today. But in the past?
But what does this look like in reality?
Let’s check out the one chart from the past that appears to be tracing out almost identically but for different reasons than the past (chart via TradingView.com):
Notice how oil did not peak until after the double top appeared in equities in the Summer of 2007. Now reflect on today’s news and think about what is happening.
-Every indication is that this war is preparing to continue. Thousands of US troops and more naval units are en route to the region. Iran is re-arming and repairing damaged missile facilities and transportation hubs.
-Trading has been extremely thin. Despite the cheer-leading about new highs, this does not confirm with higher volume nor internal technical indicators.
-The speculative bubble continues with a no-name company deciding to copy the infamous Long Island Iced Tea example of rebranding as a blockchain company:
With a no-name shoe company this author has never heard of deciding to apply it’s cobbler skills to artificial intelligence:
These pages will never tell grown adults how to, why, or what to invest their hard earned money into.
Anyone can lose money, hell, I’ve proven that.
But sometimes when the insiders are raising cash it might, just maybe, be time to raise cash for one’s family as the froth hit’s new levels of insanity as the lowest 70% of the economic strata are struggling.
The unwashed masses might just sending the warning this time that once again Wall Street will ignore until it’s too late.
