01.30.08
Posted in Old Posts at 9:44 am by Administrator
I know, I know, I’m not flapping my gums as much here. Do not worry folks as I will have a LOT to say come tonight. It would appear based on a CNBC news story that the monoline crisis is about to come to a head and that in and of itself is interesting. If the other ratings agencies downgrade them today or tomorrow the sound and panic you hear will not be from just the stock and bond markets. It will be a loud cry of anguish from the RNC who’s party will get slammed with the blame for the collapse of the economy and Western civilization as we know it (ok, that’s a tad bit extreme but not too far from the truth when it’s all said and done).
Stay tuned to the Fed at 2:15 and worse, the reaction of the bond markets all day long. If we suddenly see the corporate and muni bond markets implode the downgrades are forthcoming. Right now as I type this at 4:30 in the morning today, it would appear a small flight to safety is underway in the U.S. Treasuries.
This is what I would call a bomb shelter week. Get in it. Grab some popcorn. And enjoy the show……
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01.29.08
Posted in Old Posts at 1:13 am by Administrator
Ugh. These are our choices. The Democrats nominate a black version of Jimmy Carter and a female Mussolini. The trains might run on time with her in charge but they’ll be full of dissenters going to camps and that’s the only reason why. Then the Republicans two leading candidates are nothing but red versions of John Kerry. That’s a terrifying thought boys and girls. We are heading into a pivotal point in our history and “that’s” the best we can do. The economic situation is so unstable and those who control our future see one of those once in a century opportunities to destroy the Pax Americana and freedoms we have come to cherish. They will not have to fire a shot as the weaponry of a computer keyboard controlling trillions of dollars of our debt with anti-Democratic, anti-American and anti-Constitutional forces all coalescing into this intersection in history.
When I wrote the Op-Ed “Intersections” last year, I was fearful that this could happen, a political and economic crisis with the potential for international mischief to intensify the depths of the problems to dethrone our nation. I pray that somehow, some way we could do better than these four, but I do not foresee it.
Prepare your souls, your families, your heart, and your spirit as fast you can. If any of these four become President, which is highly likely, the final crash and burn of America will begin in earnest. And sadly, so will the beacon of freedom and liberty which has given hope to so many for the past two centuries.
Pray hard. Pray often. Pray now.
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01.25.08
Posted in Old Posts at 5:01 am by Administrator
Tonight I hit on the obvious subject of the day. There were several extremely important developments in our future economic crisis which will impact each and every one of the listeners and I feel it’s extremely important to address these issues tonight on the program.
The Q-Files are back up on Shortwave on WHRI 7.315 Mhz at 1900 EST (7 p.m.)/ 0000 UTC or GMT.
Enjoy the show gang and all questions are welcome at johngaltfla@yahoo.com
Stream 1 (Free)
Stream 2 (Free)
Stream 3 (Free)
Stream 4 (Free)
Stream 5 (Free)
Stream 6 (Free)
Stream 7 (Subscription Required)
You can also go to www.stevequayle.com and click on the “Listen Live” link to obtain access to these links. Thank you and I look forward to your participation!
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Posted in Old Posts at 12:51 am by Administrator
It was anything but the standard State of the Union speech. Instead of congratulating himself on the achievements of his young and troubled Administration, Gerald Ford adopted the somber tone of a wartime leader calling for an all-out effort to repel the enemy. Instead of skipping lightly over a broad spectrum of national and foreign policies, the President concentrated almost exclusively on specific means to counter the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, the nation’s almost 14% rate of inflation and the U.S.’s dangerous dependence on cartel-controlled foreign oil. Displaying the blunt candor that is his most politically attractive quality, the President proclaimed himself the bearer of “bad news,” declared flatly that “the State of the Union is not good,” and announced that he did not expect “much if any applause.”* Then he unfurled an economic and energy program of considerable scope, great complexity and huge risk.
Essentially, Ford plans a three-stage operation on the severely sick economy:
Stage 1: A quick infusion of $16 billion of new buying power—$12 billion to consumers in rebates on 1974 taxes, $4 billion to corporations in higher tax credits on purchases of new machinery.
Stage 2: Imposition of $30 billion in new energy taxes that will force every citizen to pay more to drive a car, heat a house or turn on a light switch.
Stage 3: Recycling of that $30 billion back into the spending stream, chiefly by permanent cuts in corporate and individual income taxes.
If the policy works as Ford hopes, sales would revive, unemployment would moderate and the nation would be much better able to withstand another cutoff of foreign oil, since Americans would be compelled by higher prices to reduce their prodigious waste of energy. But if the program fails, the consequences could be dire indeed. The $16 billion in rebates and tax credits might be too weak to jolt the economy out of its alarming slumpflation; in that case, the nation could suffer a prolonged agony of unemployment rates higher than any since before World War II. In addition, the higher prices for oil and natural gas that Ford plans could restore the raging inflation that is only now beginning to relax its debilitating grip on the U.S.
-Ford’s Risky Plan Against Stumplation, Time Magazine, January 27, 1975
Sound familiar? Today we heard the happy, happy, joy, joy news about a new economic “stimulus program” which will cost $150 billion (almost ten times the amount above) to provide extra money for lottery tickets and cigarettes to all Americans. While driving home from a long day tonight, I had the pleasure of listening to CBS News on the radio and some typical American saying in reaction to the proposal “this is great, I’ll redecorate my baby’s bedroom or take a vacation.”
Ugh.
Obviously the majority still does not get it. So a little trip down memory lane. For those who remember the button at the top of this article that stood for “Whip Inflation Now” these times will seem familiar and disturbing. The concept that creating more money (stimulus) to cure severe indebtedness (dead money that will never be repaid) has been tried so many times in history, it’s not even funny. So now the answer, in an election year of course, the current administration and the panic stricken Congresscritters have all elected to break is out the old play book, change the title, blow the dust off and sell it again to the American public. Just yesterday the CBO reported the estimated 2008 budget deficit would be in excess of $250,000,000,000.00 which does not even include the $150,000,000,000.00 proposed today. This means the Central Bankster system must create almost $400,000,000,000.00 in new money to monetize the debt in addition to the $53,000,000,000,000.000 which is hanging over our heads that David M. Walker the Comptroller General of the U.S. has been warning about. I used the long hand form of the numbers not to make your eyes bug out to but to point out the absurdity of the debt we owe the world. And the clue everyone should take from this is the absolute boiling point we have passed which has upset our true central bankster, the rest of the world.
So as we Whip Up Inflation Now instead of W.I.N. as we used to, the prospects for a huge stock market rally during the election season have improved as I predicted back on December 28, 2007. We will correct in our equity markets some 10-30%, flush out some weak banksters and then after a period of forced acquisitions and dilution to the health of our financial structure resume a new speculative bubble since there’s nothing other than stocks and commodities worth investing in and the Chinese Communists are acquiring hard assets in preparation of the storm that is about to hit. Unlike other bubbles bursting, the wizards behind this one are telling everyone that the party will continue on one hand and on the other acquiring gold and exchanging their investments out of dollars at a blistering pace. So watch what they do, not what they say gang. The acceleration out of U.S. assets is about to turn into a tidal wave, set to crest some time in 2009 or 2010. To track the race to the exits, start watching the TIC report, the ten and thirty year bond yields and of course, any reports of foreign liquidation of American real estate holdings. Once you notice the trend accelerating to a fever pitch that our own banksters can not control (Translation: The Federal Reserve buying more notes than these nations sell plus large purchases at new auctions) then the game is up. The foreigners no longer believe we will defend our currency and as many experts have declared, once we cross the Rubicon on the U.S. Dollar Index at 72.00 with volume and stay there, it’s all over but the purchase of wheelbarrows for shopping trips.
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01.23.08
Posted in Old Posts at 11:00 pm by Administrator
“Gristle” - n. cartilage, especially in meats
Admit it. Most of us have eaten at the now bankrupt Ryan’s Family Steakhouse. We hit the buffet. We loaded up on those steaks because our budgets were tight or we were on the road for business or vacation. We carved into the steak with that knife and cut a piece of meat out with that A-1 dousing it. And of course chewed. And chewed. And chewed. And of course got a chunk of gristle in it. That’s a pretty nasty thought but heck, it’s reality. Well, when a bear eats a bull it runs into a few of Kudlow’s old toupees, maybe a few of Cramer’s old Street.com buys of stocks that plummet 70% after he runs his mouth, and of course, gristle. Today the bear spit out some gristle. But take a step back. Listen to what’s been said this month. And understand that a bear market rally, just like a gold market run down or up, can be nasty and ugly if you don’t read the history of our markets and just what is coming up next. There are some undeniable facts we all have to accept and that’s why I’m here. To gross you out before dinner and keep you thinking.
Undeniable Fact#1
Despite all of the best efforts of the Bubblevision crowd, the reality is we are in the early phases of a major bear market. Until we get that final flushing sound of all the weak hands and a lot of the strong hands, this is a long, long way from being over. There has been no capitulation, no desperation, no lines outside brokerage offices televised and no reports like we heard in 1987 about angry customers confronting their brokers in a terrifying manner. The reality is that this is nothing. And until we see a massive roll over to hit the 20-30% downside targets in an average recessionary decline. In just 15 days of trading this year though, we have managed to set the plate for some serious ugliness to come. Please, please, please, that a broker’s primary duty is to rook you into “trusting” their judgment and churn your account until they give you that whopping 5% return you could generate on your own then reduce that by 3% after fees. They are used car salesmen with bad ties by and large and most (not all mind you) prefer to act like you need their products. Of course when they give you bad advice or make a mistake, you’re screwed. So remember these undeniable facts as we progress.
Undeniable Fact#2
Interestingly, the yields on the U.S. Treasuries has sparked some interesting and very disturbing questions. Glenn Beck actually had a guest on who “gets it” and posed this point to the audience. Steve Cordasco was on and pointed out that if anyone is paying attention, the bond yields on our long term debt has dived.
Steve pointed out on the radio show that huge amounts of money from institutional investors was pouring into these markets and THAT was a disturbing fact. He also pointed out that the billions that have been parked in U.S. Treasuries indicates that there is another shoe or two to drop. In my opinion, it’s not another shoe. It’s an iron boot from the Hillary collection. What one has to see is the flipside to these charts. Why would supposedly smart investors park billions into low yielding U.S. Treasury instruments after seeing this chart:
Using the official government statistics, you can see an annualized inflation rate of 4.1%. The yields on the 2, 5 and 10 year bonds are all under the inflation rate. This means that these investors are willing to take a loss on their investment by parking it there instead of playing the big casino. The 30 year was close to the “official” rate of inflation. But if you use the real, original formula for inflation, all these investments are yielding way under real inflation and that is disturbing. Why is big money piling into a losing investment and what news are they expecting in this first quarter that will be so destructive to our markets, they are willing to park there instead of one of the high quality losers Cramerica touted at his Tupperware party last night?
Undeniable Fact#3
You can shoot it, you can stomp on it, you can scream at it, you can call it useless like the two Bubblevisionista networks do, you can deny it exists as a hedge, you can proclaim it’s dead, you can deny it’s been used as a store of value for over 4000 years, but guess what gang? No one has killed this bull market yet. The accumulation by the communist Chinese government, Russian Central Bank, Arab banksters and sheiks, and of course India continues unabated and no one wants to ask “why”. The why is obvious. And with more and more investment advisers on the mainstream media advising a ten percent hedge with gold in your portfolio, this should concern everyone. I’m not trying to argue for or against this bear market rally. But if you look at all the “safety” hedges, there has been no dramatic liquidation or shift since the last quarter of 2007. Let’s see where gold ends this year before saying it was just a “hedge” because in my book it tracks with the chart from
www.shadowstats.com above on inflation. I fear that gold is your warning sign that inflation is about to get considerably worse and I stand by my “Shadowstats” guesstimate and prediction of 18-22%+ inflation by year end.
Undeniable Fact#4
There is no fear, just bewilderment. Last night’s two hour Bubblevision special should spell one thing out to everyone:
Propaganda pays
I have no ax to grind, no sales pitch to offer, no profit from what I write or say (want to hire me?). But the great disturbances in the force that I feel are based on historical studies. These rallies like today are just that, a bear market rally. There will be a lot made of this by the Bubblevisionista crowd on CNBC and FBC. Please, play safe. This is a market for pros. If you know what you are doing, have fun, make money and don’t be a pig. In the mean time, take advantage of dips in the precious metals for one more trip to the store to load up. Once we crack the $1000 and $20 on gold and silver respectively, the next leg up will be just as violent as the stock action today. And to prepare for the news that is going to hit the rest of this year requires the ultimate hedge; the currency that has survived emperors, kings, war and peace, bubbles and depressions. This is not the time to be a hero.
Or dinner for a bear.
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Posted in Old Posts at 10:35 am by Administrator
Yesterday, as discussed here and everywhere else, the Federal Reserve abandoned it’s role of inflation prevention and elected to throw band aids to the poor soul who just had his legs bitten off by a shark with a “good luck” yell and a wave goodbye as they walked back to the lifeguard shack to party with the babes. The problem with putting bandaids on gaping wounds is the blood just attracts more sharks and they are moving quickly to destroy what’s left of our economy. Ignoring the excuses offered and fuzzy explanation given by the Fed yesterday, the real reason we saw this action was displayed in the article titled Fed rate cut triggered by fear of bond insurance collapse. This “real” reason for the rate cut did not do one single thing to improve the credit quality of the defaulting homeowners who are causing the underlying assets these insurers are on the hook for thus the derivatives time bomb only had the fuse extended, not extinguished. I warn all of my readers now not to take heart nor listen to the idiocy I witnessed on Bubblevision last night. The ever famous host of Win Ben Stein’s Money was screaming into my office last night the mantra “this is the time to buy stocks now, everyone should be buying” and I was screaming back “what a freaking #!&@, you’re still trying to steal the money from little old ladies!” This is the mentality of those isolated souls who do not see or feel inflation, who think gold should be used as hedge for their losses and not for yours, and feel that they know better so you had best shut your little peon mouth and do as we say.
The fact that we have a Fed which has abandoned it’s responsibility, the fact that we have a derivatives implosion underway and the fact that we have a totally imploded fixed income market seems to have missed the Bubblevisionistas radar screen. That was quite obvious when Cramer had his Tupperware party on television last night screaming that “he made” the Fed cut rates. These self-absorbed thieves have only one goal and until you understand that, you will be a slave to this new paradigm they’ve created: To separate you from your money. Understand that goal and you will find financial independence.
The wealthiest souls during the 1930’s were those that hid their assets, stashed away cash and refused to follow the bubble which was blatantly obvious in late 1928. In the article I posted from the October 15, 1928 issue of TIME titled Bull, Bear, Lion, Lamb , the most important sentence was from the head of the Federal Reserve at that time, Governor Roy Young:
“The Federal Reserve can’t earmark its credit. But it can help steer the credit ship. People must not expect the impossible.”
This statement applies today and yet the lessons of that time, the lessons of the mistakes under the Woodrow Wilson administration with the introduction of this creature, have yet to be learned. Keep that in mind as you prepare for the future. The central banking system is inherently designed to fail and once the dollar has finished it’s one hundred year decline to insolvency the options will be obvious to all. Unfortunately for the average American citizen the options include more bleeding, more dilution of their savings, and the ultimate end to the good times most have experienced in their life time.
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01.22.08
Posted in Old Posts at 10:02 pm by Administrator
With Benron’s help, we staved off a massive decline which easily could have become anywhere from an 800 to 1000 point plus drop in the Dow which would have accelerated the inevitable instead of letting the disaster just happen. Instead, Ben wandered out to Aisle 3 out at the NYSE and said “let’s see if this helps the mess you made boys” and mopped up a little bit of the spill the banksters have created. The problem is that this did zero, zip, nada (notice I love that phrase in my op-eds) to fix the systemic problems that are inherent to our economy now. We are facing not just a commercial lending crisis which is unprecedented in our history, but we are looking at the prospect of a banking system freeze which isolates the consumer when they are most vulnerable. The ability of the consumer to refinance homes, buy automobiles, buy land, or finance major purchases is in doubt and only those who have cash to put a major down payment or a viable asset (Translation: Not an over-valued home appraised by the banksters who gave the original mortgage) to borrow against will be in a position to borrow money. Talking to my friends “in that business” this pretty much eliminates a large number of folks from obtaining sizable loans which will further slow down spending on large items and assets. That should guarantee more layoffs in the Rust Belt, more fictionalized manufacturing numbers and another reduction in consumer spending. Remember, this is the month that the birth-death model is reset so when the BLS finishes playing Donkey Kong with the numbers, we’ll see what the politicos have determined the lie of the day shall be.
What does this mean to us average schmucks who just like to prepare for the incoming onslaught? More unemployment. Less pay. More inflation. So this cleanup, like the last series was for one purpose and one purpose only: To bail out the banksters. The differences between 1836, 1893, 1907, 1929, 1987 and now are glaring but you can pick similarities out from each. The one consistency, sadly, is that our central banking system is failing us and will ultimately destroy our currency and leave us all with a mess to deal with culturally, politically and economically. As this week progresses, I will be offering commentary on what direction we are heading in. The screaming siren though of the trouble I see ahead from an inflation perspective can be displayed with this chart:
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Posted in Old Posts at 4:50 pm by Administrator
Well, it doesn’t take a full day’s trading to realize that that was a waste of Benron’s bullet. The 75 basis point cut is now being heralded as a savior by the permabulls and an assassination attempt on the bears. Sadly for the bulls, the bears simply covered their shorts, took their money home and refused to come out to play by lunchtime. It would appear that the “sell into any rally” message pounded into the sheeple’s heads is taking hold. The realization that this does zero, zip, nada, nothing to help people who are delinquent on their mortgages, nothing to revive the corpse known as the “consumer”, and nothing to entice foreign money to buy our treasuries as when they rally they are selling their holdings into the rallies. This is the makings of an ongoing financial disaster. Instead of a one day crash and attempt to rebuild a new base with some of the crap taken out to the curb, we have opened Pandora’s box and a long slow grinding market is upon us. We might finish in the green today, but I doubt it. Once the financial world grasps that Benron has used his Barney’s Magic Bullet, the eventual impact will be total and abject panic at the thought that we may indeed have to follow the Japanese model. The problem is the citizens have no savings, too much debt and a horrible societal structure unlike the Japanese where fifty percent of the population expect the government to pay for everything and wipe their butts. That is the formula not just for a nightmare version of France, but the opportunity of an old fashioned 1920’s Italian style leader to emerge as things get fouled up.
You know, like the guy who guaranteed the trains will run on time……
More tonight after the market close.
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Posted in Old Posts at 4:06 am by Administrator
“During the day someone-according to Frederick Lewis Allen it was thought to have been a bright messenter boy for the Exchange-had the happy idea of entering a bid for a block of stock at a dollar a share. In the absence of any other bid he got it.”
-The Great Crash 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith
And so as I awaken this morning, do I have a buck to spare? Uh, no. But the quote from the book above indicates what exactly happens during a wide open market panic. There is a misnomer that the powers that be, aka the “Plungers”(PPT), can not stop the momentum of the events we are about to see. The futures are already turning as I type this with an almost 1% swing in the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ futures yet they are all still down substantially. The “plungers” will spend the next 5 plus hours buying futures in a desperate attempt to stave off a panic or crash on their watch as the scream after the formation of the PPT as a result of the 1987 crash was “never again” or NIMBY. Alas, the problem is that they have no control over Asia to any great extent and the traditional banking powers in Europe in coordination with the PPT can only influence so much for so long. To give you some idea as to the volatility, in just my one hour of being awake this morning the FTSE 100 has swung from down 226 to up 30 plus to back down 40 plus as I type. Will we see the U.S. markets rally? Who knows. There are rumors abound about Federal Reserve rate cuts, banks in trouble, and efforts by the banksters to use the power of their hedge funds to stave off or protect certain sectors in an attempt to hold the line.
They shall inevitably fail.
We might be so lucky to see rallies during the day as in the 1929 and 1987 crashes, yet please, don’t be an idiot. This is not a market for amateurs or people who do not have money to lose. If you understand the concept of trading in a bear market and have day trading experience, have fun as this is your day. If you do not and have the antiquated belief that “buy and hold” is the play of the day, God help you. By the end of today you could easily see a sizable chunk of your portfolio shredded. The brokers are not your friends. Their phones will be mysteriously busy for hours today, the email you send unanswered for days and the protection of their butts first and foremost on their agenda. The smaller platforms which allow you to trade online will probably get smoked today and you might even see some orders executed well below the levels you anticipated or at losses to your account.
The only safety is to be a spectator as I will watch with popcorn and iced tea in hand. History has a funny way of just “happening” as the clock moves forward and the calender flips pages. Those of you too young to have enjoyed disco, polyester jump suits and the 1970’s have to understand that in equity, energy and of course the metals volatility was the mantra of the day. But with internet trading, individual speculation and government sponsored meddling the volatility we during the rest of this month could be a nightmare. There will be bankruptcies from what we witness today. There will be political repercussions. There will be loud, shrill calls for government takeovers to ease the pain. It means nothing. The word is on the street that the first layer of the banking system has issues and those issues will show themselves in due time. IF you would like to check the “rating” on your bank you can go to BankRate to check on the status of your bank and just see how it rates. Watch the local news, read the papers and listen to what is being said by the management. When the entire financial system reaches certain levels of instability, the small community banksters are the first to implode.
So what can we look forward to today? As the title of this op-ed says, “BOOM”, and nothing more. The word “panic” is being used over and over again on Bubblevision and Bloomberg. When the financial media speaks in these terms and tells people to avoid the markets at all cost you can bet your bottom dollar that there are a truckload of sell orders sitting on the desks of the brokerage houses. Mutual fund owners are going to unwind. Small investors who elected to follow the Cramers and Kudlows of the world are going to unload. Foreigners who have been losing everything in Asia and Europe the last two days are going to unload. So regardless of anything our buddy Benron or Hank Paulson who speaks at 8 a.m. this morning wish to say or do, it will have little effect as the markets do not trust our central bank. Faith has been lost and that is not to be restored with $100 billion in intervention nor a 75 point basis cut in the Fed Funds rate and discount rate. I think it is also safe to say at this point that the dollar will be sacrificed to keep the artificial price on equities in place. The Fed may not move today into this panic, but you can bet that the author of Helicopternomics will fire up the rotors and destroy the traditional economic models that a lot of traders wagered trillions on. Despite the efforts and news today, promises of stimuli, and breast beating of the politicians, none of this matters to a family where the husband and wife watched their jobs get exported overseas and the ability to meet the terms on their Option ARM loan which is resetting. Homes will continue to be lost. Banks will be forced to write down trillions. The implosion will be so total, so complete that when the average uninterested observer finally realizes what has happened we will be well into the next depression.
You will see denial. You will hear the President. You will witness pompous political asses marching in front of cameras all night long as the markets gyrate. Remember the safest soundest strategy and remember the warnings we have been giving about the J.I.T. inventory system, the Ponzi scheme known as our financial markets, and the games the government has been playing with our statistical reports which the world uses for raw data to trade. All of the lies and manipulation have to come home to roost and that egg is about to be laid. The famous headline is so appropriate for what we shall witness.
As today, no matter the efforts, the lies and the manipulations we shall see, the smart money is gone and only those who hope and prayed this day would not come(due to their own financial interests) and those who will get religion on the floor of the exchange shall be engaged today. I worry more about the little old lady conned by the major brokerages to invest in stocks and funds she had no business in. I worry more about the people who piled monies into 401K’s because their corporate financial benefit’s advisers are more concerned about inflating their company’s own stock rather than investing in safety for the future of the employees. And I really worry that the spin we will see all day long will give us all major cases of whiplash.
Have your neck braces ready folks.
The day, the first of many, we have warned of, begins today. Below 1200 on the S&P cash market is the darkness. If we break that today, I see little if any technical support until we reach the 1030-1070 range. That’s just a historical observation and if we hit my prediction from the December 28th program and do it in one day, you can dispose of a lot of other predictions I made.
Because it’s:
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01.18.08
Posted in Old Posts at 3:23 am by Administrator
I’m sorry, I couldn’t resist. Where’s Algore with the snowballs? I know, the Arabs made it snow on them. Well, the entire story is in the Baltimore Sun (Link ) and it’s just beyond hilarious.
Maybe they should have held the protest where there’s a real warming issue. I have some suggestions….
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