As the war heads into April and May, keep this one screenshot that I snipped in mind, using Kharkov (Kharkiv) as a reference point (from Accuweather.com):
So with the snowmelt in full force turning most of Ukraine into muck the last two weeks of March, the spring rains are beginning. What better time to lick their wounds, abandon a faulty strategy in the north and re-equip then reinforce the forces in east and south.
Even though the Kremlin has gone somewhat silent, I’m sure that certain Generals who over promised and got their forces mauled means that odds are several of those officers are now out of power and new more intelligent soldiers have replaced them. Thus the new strategy might look something like this Tweet thread by Eliot A. Cohen which is a must read:
IF, big if, it does trend towards scenario two, look for a replacement for Putin quickly with a more hard line neo-USSR type leader who will mobilize the nation and put the war in a much more dangerous place than it is today.
By that I mean think Suwaiki gap.
More updates tonight as events warrant and stay on Telegram folks, very good information there also.
04.07 21:00 UTC UPDATE:
Odessa getting the hammer again:
Heavy shelling around Kharkov again today:
Strike damaging a church in Vasishchevo, Kharkiv Oblast. pic.twitter.com/DGJzFJaA7S
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 7, 2022
CGTN (China) reporter barely escapes shelling attack:
The remaining Ukrainians in the Azovstal industrial area being attacked by the Russian Navy:
Elements of the Russian Black Sea Fleet engaging Ukrainian positions at the Azovstal factory in Mariupol. pic.twitter.com/BFPx4Hlqdo
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 7, 2022
In other news that makes one scratch their head:
Weird that the were not already shooting them down. More tomorrow along with other news!
Sanctions? We don’t need no stinkin’ sanctions!
So much for 1970’s political group think.
Unbelievable the evacuation was not started last week or even two weeks ago as everyone with a brain knew Kramatorsk would be a primary target:
Huge crowds of people at #Kramatorsk train station trying to leave the city today. In a couple of days the city will probably start to receive “gifts” from Putin, and then it will be too late. https://t.co/btpXpYml6m
— Gregor Martin (@Guderian_Xaba) April 7, 2022
Kremlin spokesperson Peskov with a hint of honesty:
I wonder what they expected? If any nation invades a nation like ours with ground forces the size of our military doesn’t matter, it’s the number of people willing to fight. A huge miscalculation and the head of the FSB will pay for the poor intelligence.
Russian strikes are still happening where the Ukrainians least expect them obviously:
Strike from Russian “Inokhodets” (Orion) UCAV against Ukrainian truck with towed howitzer.. pic.twitter.com/VoEXuWL7tr
— Yuri Lyamin (@imp_navigator) April 7, 2022
Mariupol is now being cut into smaller and smaller combat zones:
And in the east of the country, the beat down is getting severe if this report is correct:
I shall effort to update this thread after the thunderstorm passes by around 20:00 UTC.
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