Shenandoah

By John Galt

January 9, 2010

Sigh.

As if this was not easy enough to predict a year ago.

All of the idiotic programs started by the idiot who proclaimed that he (paraphrasing) had to murder freedom, er capitalism, to save it have been adopted, expanded, and multiplied by America’s favorite socialist.

Thank you George.

Now that the left wingnut socialist crowd can spew the “wow, those John Galt types really are fair and balanced” let me unzip my furor and piss into what would be your hollowed out eye sockets if I could get you into range. You Marxist dirt bags pieces of crap are about to get your wish and guess what? I still hope you fail although I know deep down in my heart, you shall succeed and soon have the ability to have people with guns chasing me into the countryside shooting at my small, firm, male butt like I’m sort of freaking pheasant in a video game restricted hunt. But enough about the dire reality of our political situation and this much delayed report which was interrupted when my wife decided to have one of her girlfriend office parties at my casa last night, forcing a mandatory evacuation for sanity purposes.

This will be divided into three parts so it will be easier to read. Part one will cover the employment report, part two the November Sales and Inventories Report, and part three enough graphs to make your eyes bleed and beg that alien fermenting in your intestines to bust out of your stomach and show its true face, that of an inflationary Federal Reserve Alien ready to sell you and I out to anyone on the world stage which offers a better compensation package.

Part 1: JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, NOT

The Obama administration obviously is still run by snot nosed rookies. When you promis a statistical improvement to demonstarte that your administration is effective, you are supposed to deliver and just how hard would it have been to have the PCOSBDC (Presidential Chief of Staff Birth/Death Computer) dial up oh, say 225,000 new jobs created out of thin air? Sheesh, it really is an embarrassment that we are run by such rank amateurs.

With that vent out of the way, the U-3 stayed stable at 10% but we lost 85,000 jobs “officially” which means that in reality it was a whole lot worse than they are letting on.  To make matters worse, from December 2008 to December 2009 the civilian population rate from Table A-13 in the BLS Report indicated a further drop in the total civilian participation rate with a drop over the past year of aproximately 3,545,000. Not an indication of a growing economy no matter how one cuts it, much less a recovery beginning to take shape and with the civilian participation rate at an over twenty year low, it is time to get concerned about the massive issues our nation will face in 2010.

Thus why my graphics package will not be encouraging nor something the Federal Reserve nor Obamites want to admit:

That massive debt monetization does not save an economy from a downturn nor create jobs.

First, here’s my favorite table from the BLS report, Table A-12, U-6 which suddenly is being widely reported by the Bubblemedia, which is a sign that the reality can not be denied:

As you can see we are settling into a pattern of a 15% plus persistent unemployed/underemployed status for the extreme long term. This is born out further when you compare the seasonal and non-seasonal numbers for the same table:

From these graphs it is easy to figure out that since December of 2008 we have pretty much insured a 12.5 to 13% long term underemployed/unemployed rate and since November of 2009, that number has jumped once again. The median and average duration of unemployment also bear the charts above out to be quite correct only because the work force that is actively looking for employment really has little opportunity to find family sustaining much less long term survivable employment:

Thus with the evidence at hand that indeed we are seeing more people unemployed for longer durations than since the Great Depression of the 1929-1939 era, one has to ask some serious questions as to the extend that this “recovery” will actually begin, much less expand into the lower and middle classes. Toss in the data from above along with the information that many follow about workers employed 27 weeks or longer and it starts to hit home even harder:

So everyone thinks that the manufacturing sector will crank back up and bail us out just like the Bubblevisionistas get on television every day and proclaim about our “new” economy. Let’s see what is happening with all manufacturing, durables and non-durables:

Kind of ironic that FDR was President last time we saw numbers like these, isn’t it?

Maybe the Obamites intend for us to make Nash’s and Edsels or perhaps a Studebaker or two?

I think we can officially call the manufacturing sector of our economic D.O.A. Especially since the tree huggers and socialists running this national circus think that an economic recovery is based on a Command and Control concept designed by the Soviet Union and admired by their aides yet proven throughout history to be anti-Freedom and anti-Capitalist. So the numbers are historically bleak no matter what the morons on the three BubbleNetworks tell you. And to add to that, let’s take a look at our favorite political economy computer program, the Birth/Death model.

Thus with 59,000 fictional jobs created by that Evil Monk Rahm Emmanuel and the White House computer programmers, they could not get a positive jobs report. Man what amateurs!

The construction industry which used to be part of the economy still shows signs of a massive decline and prove that, even the programmers couldn’t figure out a way to lie enough, again, about any jobs being created in this field:

That is not a shocker considering the long term trend for the past ten years for the construction industry inside the United State despite the “housing” boom…..

Should I pile on with more numbers to prove my point? Of course! Let’s see what happens when you take the monthly reports (U-3) AND  subtract the Birth/Death numbers from the reported gains/losses that we’ve seen since April of 2008:

Essentially speaking, for almost two years we have yet to witness any net job creation despite the best efforts of the politicians and computer programmers from both political parties. That plus the deviation in the numbers, honestly admitted by economists on Friday (Error range of +/- 108,000 on the U3 projections 1st estimate) who participated on the varioius Bubblemedia programs, and you begin to realize just how inexact a science this is as the graphs bear out:

Thus from the very start of this financial crisis in February of 2007, the revisions to the report have been drastic, unscientific at best, out right dishonest with the first report at the least and apparently politically modified in this writer’s opinion. There should not be more than 5% deviation but we are all over the place with these clowns so buckle up it is only going to get worse in the months ahead. In fact if you track the first report versus the 3rd and final revision,  you will understand what I am talking about quite clearly:

With private industry pretty much wiped out in the past decade and the government counting on the U.S. Census to eliminate the current “unemployment” problem until they can design a better widget, the nation is indeed in deep, deep trouble with the Capitalists in total fear and loathing of both parties at this moment.

We’re back to pre-2000 levels and the good people at ChartoftheDay validated that with a nasty, nasty demonstration of what we’ve done to ourselves by destroying the full faith and credit of our currency and financial markets:

So much for the recovery. In Part 2 I’m going to focus on more of the unfolding disaster about to come back around as I warned months ago with the eye of the storm moving on and the calm getting ready to change to massive turbulent times. I hope everyone who has read these pages for years has taken the time and effort to prepare.