I probably could stop typing there, but to be honest, to say goodbye to this God awful year deserves at least a cursory review of the insane events this past year and a scorecard for this author’s predictions which were probably worse than Kamala’s campaign.
I. Global Events
I didn’t do as bad as I thought in this arena, but could have been better:
“Instability breeds insanity.”
Nailed that.
- The BRICS nations expansion will accelerate as the Western Central banks decide that irresponsible monetary expansion is more important than currency exchange stability. The BRICS will begin the process of a cross-border, partially commodity based currency standard for member nations to avoid the unstable behavior of the Yen, US Dollar, Pound Sterling, and Euro.
Seems pretty accurate. However the surge in the US Dollar’s strength has derailed and destabilized most of the BRICS member nation’s currencies far more than anticipated.
2. The Israeli-Palestinian war will expand into southern Lebanon against Hezbollah. Israel will experience over 3,000 civilian and military casualties in 2024. The Arab peoples and militias will experience ten times more.
I did not foresee Syria collapsing like a house of cards but Assad got what he deserved for trying to play all sides against each other in his back yard. The Israelis have suffered only 1706 casualties in 2024 so they’ve done a good job mitigating their losses in the horrific war. I would say that otherwise, again, nailed that also.
Number 3, not a prayer. Taiwan had no rapprochement with China in 2024 and in fact greater regional instability is in store.
4. After enduring a massive air and missile attack from US forces in the first days of January, the Houthis in Yemen retaliate by severely damaging a US destroyer with anti-ship missiles and sinking an oil tanker in the Red Sea.
I missed on the destroyer being damaged, but they did attack one which used almost all of it’s anti-missile capacity defending itself. The oil tanker did not sink, but did create a severe oil spill due to the the Houthi attack. I’ll give myself a 50% on that prediction.
Numbers 5 and 6 were complete misses which just goes to demonstrate why you can never predict what crazy dictators will do in the world.
7. Russia’s war with Ukraine begins to wind down as Western support slips away. Kharkov and the Donetsk Oblast are cleared of Ukrainian forces and occupied by year end. Zelensky narrowly escapes an assassination attempt in Lvov during the summer of 2024.
Donetsk Oblast is almost cleared out heading into the last few days of this year, but for some reason no offensive in the Kharkov oblast of significance has begun yet. If Zelensky was a target, the West has done a good job of covering it up. Thus I’ll give myself a 30% on this prediction.
II. Economic Insanity
I did somewhat better than I thought in this arena, then I started to apparently drink too much and went off the rails on some of the predictions.
- Gold finally breaks above $2150 and after a second correction reaches a new high over $2600 before ending the year around $2500 per ounce. Silver rebounds slightly finishing the year above $40 per ounce.
Pretty much nailed that although it looks like a total miss on silver despite a strong attempt to break above $35 per ounce. Precious metals look solid heading into 2025 with the insanity in the US accelerating.
2. Bitcoin corrects after some regulatory bluster early in 2024, then skyrockets above $65,000. Ethereum and other major players follow the lead while more of the meme coins vanish into the ether.
Nailed it. And it’s still insane as hell.
3 and 4 were complete and total duds. But wow, what a ride provided by the Fed in equities this year.
5. WTI crude prices drop below $60 per barrel briefly during early 2024. New sanctions against nations supporting the Israeli war and Ukraine war by OPEC+ result in prices rebounding but only finishing the year around $73 per barrel.
If I based it on Brent it would have been pretty solid for a year end price. However WTI never dropped below $65 per barrel despite numerous attempts to do so. For the year, it looks like the price will end around $70 per barrel which indicates it was one of the most volatile and boring markets to trade unless one was an insider.
6. Core PCE prices remain stubbornly above 4% in reality for almost all of 2024, but the Federal Reserve relents and offers one token rate cut in July to prevent any of the candidates from declaring they are picking winners and losers in either political party. Consumer and small business start up credit remains almost frozen for the entire year.
The last line is pretty much true if we counted October through December as the entire year, but of course we do not. The fact the Fed cut 100 basis points this year indicates something really bad is happening in the plumbing but more on that in the 2025 predictions. I’ll give myself a 50% on this as the inflation forecast was spot on with the Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI closing the year out at 3.80%.
Number 7 was the inverse as it was the hot Southern markets which have witnessed 10-20% price declines and the MidWest and Northeast remained somewhat stable. Western state real estate prices are a disaster if one takes any realistic look at California.
8. Lithium prices spiral downward creating unrest in some African nations as demand for EVs continues to crater due to the high prices and poor quality in the 1st generation of vehicles.
Nailed that and the instability from the Sahel to the Congo has only increased.
I totally flubbed on number 9 as I failed to take into account just how much helium the FDIC and Biden junta would pump into the system to prevent any waves or major bank failures during an election year.
10. Retail bankruptcies increase again in H2 as the online shopping movement along with the dying downtown areas reduces the brick and mortar footprint. Personal bankruptcies begin to increase also in the far West as the AirBnB investment craze unwinds leaving many individuals holding the proverbial bag.
What can I say? Someone put the ball on the tee and I drove it 300 yards down the middle on that one.
III. US Political Theater
I did not drink enough to get one single prediction correct in this arena as I did not realize how insane both political parties or the American people really are.
IV. Nature’s Fury
- 15 named storms, 1 major hurricane hitting either Florida and/or Louisiana, 4 other hurricanes not major, and ten tropical storms with only minor impacts on the US and Mexico.
So it was 18 major storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 major storms, two of which hit Florida and impacted this blogger’s area directly. The third storm that hit our area, Debby, was just a fluke of nature and why one can never discount the potential for once in a century flooding rains with these storms.
Number 2 didn’t happen to a large degree albeit there was an uptick in earthquake activity this past year. Number 3 did occur but the main energy release only skirted by the earth creating some satellite disruptions and and the Northern Lights being visible as far south as the Florida Keys.
V. Sports, Nuts, and other Insanity
Never wager based on the sports predictions one might read here. Just some friendly advice.
4. Hollywood continues to generate “woke” movies and fails to understand why viewership and attendance is down. The elitist media simply projects the assumption that some of the “new” movies are too sophisticated for blue collar America.
I can 100% claim that yours truly nailed that one as the movie the elites hated “Deadpool & Wolverine“, demonstrated that the American people go to the theater to be entertained not preached to.
Number 5 did not happen but the end of cable television and the current movie industry as structured is at hand.
6. 75 more A.M. radio stations, mostly from the talk radio and Christian broadcasting format shut down in 2024.
Only 40 stations shut down but a lot of that can be attributed to the election season. Now that talk radio is losing its way along with other formats being replaced by digital streaming, that prediction might well hold more validity into 2025.
Overall, minus the fluffernuttery predictions in sports and politics which yours truly gets wrong almost every year, I give these predictions the following grade:
C+
Good enough to get into an Ivy League school if I can make up enough pronouns and pharmaceutical based disabilities to get that free pass.
2025 predictions to follow for publication tonight, so I guess I’d best start priming the pump now. Time to go dig out that Bloody Mary mix for this morning as I have the feeling staying somewhat drunk next year might be the only way to keep my sanity.
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