Yes ladies and gents, and those undecideds who reside in weirdo states and nations who really have no clue about biology and reality, it is that time again. This time I decided to wait until Sunday, December 31, 2023 to write this edition because that way I can steal the best predictions for myself? No? Not cool?
Ah well.
On a more serious note, to those who have emailed me concerned about my health, my family situation with my mother, and all that has been going on in this crappy year past, thank you. I mean that profusely. You guys and gals have no idea how much that means to my wife and I as our personal situation seems to be fine, but yeah, I decided that skydiving wasn’t enough so I stressed my heart out by turning the volume up to 11.
Time to turn the volume down and enjoy life.
This year was horrid for most average individuals be it politically, economically, or sadly in the world, during major conflicts which seem to be accelerating in violence and casualties; not to mention spreading across the globe.
As i stated in a previous article last year’s prediction record was “meh” so if you based your life, investing decisions, or political outlook on this clown of an author, you deserve every bit of the derision or success that shall befall you.
Before I go into my predictions, for those of you slow to the uptake and unable to understand the title of this article, no, I am not talking about the type of “pole shifts” Hunter Biden is accustomed to.
So it is now 11:30 a.m. on a Sunday morning, New Year’s Eve, and I have to get ready for some football so with a Luksusowa Bloody Mary at on my coaster, it is time to edit and finalize my drunken 2024 predictions.
One bit of investing advice: Safe rooms.
I. Geopolitics
Instability breeds insanity.
If that old mantra holds true, then we have a lot of inbreeding insanity in our world today; in fact unseen since 1939 to be accurate. Thus this weird, doomer, yet optimistic series of world predictions that may or may not come true in 2024.
1. The BRICS nations expansion will accelerate as the Western Central banks decide that irresponsible monetary expansion is more important than currency exchange stability. The BRICS will begin the process of a cross-border, partially commodity based currency standard for member nations to avoid the unstable behavior of the Yen, US Dollar, Pound Sterling, and Euro.
2. The Israeli-Palestinian war will expand into southern Lebanon against Hezbollah. Israel will experience over 3,000 civilian and military casualties in 2024. The Arab peoples and militias will experience ten times more.
3. Taiwan begins a series of diplomatic discussions with Beijing after the Taiwanese Presidential elections and the realization that the US can not be depended upon in case of an invasion.
4. After enduring a massive air and missile attack from US forces in the first days of January, the Houthis in Yemen retaliate by severely damaging a US destroyer with anti-ship missiles and sinking an oil tanker in the Red Sea.
5. Venezuela peacefully occupies the disputed Guayana Esequiba by sending regular troops across the Guyana border disguised as civilians. Before the West can intervene over 10,000 Venezuelan troops set up defensive positions while working out a diplomatic agreement with the Georgetown government, basically at gunpoint.
6. A major cyberattack takes down the South Korean stock exchange, believed to originate from North Korea. It is shut down for a week as the system is reset and hardened to prevent a repeat attack.
7. Russia’s war with Ukraine begins to wind down as Western support slips away. Kharkov and the Donetsk Oblast are cleared of Ukrainian forces and occupied by year end. Zelensky narrowly escapes an assassination attempt in Lvov during the summer of 2024.
II. Economic Insanity
1. Gold finally breaks above $2150 and after a second correction reaches a new high over $2600 before ending the year around $2500 per ounce. Silver rebounds slightly finishing the year above $40 per ounce.
2. Bitcoin corrects after some regulatory bluster early in 2024, then skyrockets above $65,000. Ethereum and other major players follow the lead while more of the meme coins vanish into the ether.
3. The S&P 500 comes back to reality H1 of 2024 with a solid correction around 27% (3,500ish) at its lowest depths. The first few months are marked by a liquidity crisis due to QT by the Fed in coordination with the US Treasury flooding the markets with debt and incompetent political leadership. For the year, the S&P 500 and stocks in general finish almost flat, near 4770, compared to the December 29, 2023 close.
4. Following the cyberattack on South Korea, the NYSE and NASDAQ shut down for one day per SEC orders to verify security protocols. After being deemed satisfactory a jumpy equity market reopens on thin volume for several days.
5. WTI crude prices drop below $60 per barrel briefly during early 2024. New sanctions against nations supporting the Israeli war and Ukraine war by OPEC+ result in prices rebounding but only finishing the year around $73 per barrel.
6. Core PCE prices remain stubbornly above 4% in reality for almost all of 2024, but the Federal Reserve relents and offers one token rate cut in July to prevent any of the candidates from declaring they are picking winners and losers in either political party. Consumer and small business start up credit remains almost frozen for the entire year.
7. Real estate prices begin to crash in the West, Midwestern, and Northeastern states anywhere from 10-20% on average. Only a few Southern US states see a measurable decline.
8. Lithium prices spiral downward creating unrest in some African nations as demand for EVs continues to crater due to the high prices and poor quality in the 1st generation of vehicles.
9. Six US banks fail this year including one major regional bank which is forced into a shotgun wedding with Citigroup to try to increase the asset base the struggling TBTF bank.
10. Retail bankruptcies increase again in H2 as the online shopping movement along with the dying downtown areas reduces the brick and mortar footprint. Personal bankruptcies begin to increase also in the far West as the AirBnB investment craze unwinds leaving many individuals holding the proverbial bag.
III. US Political Theater
1. Donald Trump will be convicted of 3 charges in Florida. In Georgia he will take a plea deal and avoid jail time but will pay a $12.5 million fine as part of the settlement. The Washington, D.C. trial is delayed until after the Presidential election.
2. Ron DeSantis will win IA and NH in the first two GOP primary contests. I’ve got nothing to offer after that but mass hysteria and confusion. Trump might still win the GOP nomination after that by winning almost every state except Florida after that (see prediction 6 below).
3. The Democrats railroad and re-nominate President Joe Biden for a 2nd term with Kamala Harris as Vice-President. The media begins a 24/7 propaganda push to promote the successes of the regime.
4. The movie “Civil War” debuts in late May creating massive controversy. The left predictably demands crack downs by the FBI and states on so-called “right wing” militias and the media willingly promotes them as a threat to the Republic.
5. As a result of numerous false flag “rallies” some of which are instigated by the “Patriot Front” movement, a new law is passed with support by both the House and Senate which provides the FBI with broad domestic spying capabilities requiring a password registry for all message board and social media companies to be maintained by the Department of Justice.
6. IF Donald Trump is the nominee, the GOP loses control of the House by ten seats and the Senate by 3 seats in the November election as Joe Biden easily wins re-election by over 50 electoral votes. Kentucky, Missouri, and Virginia shocking flip during one of the slimiest campaigns in American history.
IV. Nature’s Fury
1. 15 named storms, 1 major hurricane hitting either Florida and/or Louisiana, 4 other hurricanes not major, and ten tropical storms with only minor impacts on the US and Mexico.
2. 1 major earthquake between Washington state and Baja Mexico. Unusual uptick in earthquake activity in the New Madrid Zone which causes massive concern in Illinois and Missouri after a quake larger than 5.5 hits the region.
3. Unusual solar activity generates a major X10+ flare which creates a temporary commercial satellite blackout. The American public, as usual, freaks out.
V. Sports, Nuts, and other Insanity
1. The Baltimore Ravens win the Super Bowl and Lamar Jackson is the MVP.
2. The Winnipeg Jets defeat the New York Rangers to win the Stanley Cup. Prime Minister Trudeau demands they share the cup with Toronto in the name of social justice.
3. The Texas Longhorns beat Alabama again to become NCAA football champs.
4. Hollywood continues to generate “woke” movies and fails to understand why viewership and attendance is down. The elitist media simply projects the assumption that some of the “new” movies are too sophisticated for blue collar America.
5. The Paramount-Time Warner merger is held up in court due to concerns about what happens to CNN and objections from lawyers from Disney, Comcast-Universal, and Netflix.
6. 75 more A.M. radio stations, mostly from the talk radio and Christian broadcasting format shut down in 2024.
That’s about it for this year and apparently next year is not going to be much better. The political instability should hit by August of 2024 and that’s when the fun really begins.
But 2025?
Yeah, got long term storage food?
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are you going to do one talking about your correct vs wrongs from the previous year again?
Already did, just scroll down a few posts:)