Today the equity markets completed an intraday reversal, albeit on relatively light volume and terrible breadth, to finish the month and quarter with a so-called window dressing rally.
But the big move was in gold, which has been and for the quarter, sending a warning that currency and equity traders had best start paying attention to. The second quarter of 2025 is projecting a crisis to form, expand, and hammer global economies who married their futures to the perpetual Federal Reserve bailout cycle however real money, gold, is warning everyone that this will not happen in the near future.
Why is this of major concern?
Let’s go to the chart of charts for the past 5 years since the Covidmania era:
Down moves have been within acceptable ranges. There is no indication of excessive speculative bidding yet. Central bank buying has been normal and worse for the equity bulls, there is nothing to indicate that large cap stocks have replaced gold as the monetary safe haven on a global basis.
This author stands by the forecast for a peak this year of between $3500-$3600 per ounce not just based on long term technical support, but the need for an alternative to offset the alternative economic policies exhibited by the current US government and Congressional leadership. Throw a dash of geopolitical instability into the mix and another increase of $400 plus per ounce does not seem irrational.
Buckle up and BTFD boys and girls, because the alternative is trusting in US Treasuries which could well up as part of this trade war, despite the wishes of Treasury Secretary Bessent and the Federal Reserve.
