If we’re all supposed to be dorks and believe the financial pump and dump media, the BLS report on CPI at 8:30 a.m. will be the most important financial event of this month until the next one.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s take a look at last month’s report from the pages of the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Meanwhile the Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI remained well above the Fed’s 2% target rate for PCE as there is a certain issue with price deceleration starting to wane.
Thus when the consensus came out via the Wall Street Journal, my skepticism radar popped up:
Of all the forecasts on the list, Deutsche Bank seems to have nailed it in this author’s opinion. The first wave of “Liberation Day” tariffs collections should impact apparel, metals, and other consumer products along with pressure from foodstuffs on select soft ags and unfortunately for us dedicated members of the grilling public, beef.
The year over year core rate could creep up to 3.1% if the BLS starts to notice the increases outside of the one off purchase items from last month and the realization hits that the citizenry has noticed that costs are higher.
If we see this prediction validate, look for major pain, screaming, and calls for more easy money (?) to cure all that sickens the US economy.
