There will be a cadre of bulls who insist that this author is insane. For the record, I am not a permanent bear as it is impossible to use various antiquated “wave” theorem and vanquished careers of non-stop calls for doom, despair and misery for me. Sorry and not sorry for the classic Hee-Haw reference, but it fits the insanity of the past 48 hours perfectly.
President Trump has followed in the footsteps of a namesake within the classic AMC television program Breaking Bad and is living up to the theories presented in a classic form. No, I am not accusing him of baking blue methamphetamine in the White House kitchen nor of being an evil drug dealer.
However, he is playing up to the name of Heisenberg in way’s that most economic professionals and historians are ignoring.
Werner Heisenberg that is, not Walter White.
How so? Let’s review the great theory in the most simplified explanation this author could find of Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Princple:
Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle states that there is inherent uncertainty in the act of measuring a variable of a particle. Commonly applied to the position and momentum of a particle, the principle states that the more precisely the position is known the more uncertain the momentum is and vice versa. This is contrary to classical Newtonian physics which holds all variables of particles to be measurable to an arbitrary uncertainty given good enough equipment. The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle is a fundamental theory in quantum mechanics that defines why a scientist cannot measure multiple quantum variables simultaneously.
– via LibreTexts Chemistry webpage
I have added the bold print to prove a point, because at this point in time, it is impossible for any reasonable, sane, or logical business person, market guru, or banker at any level to measure or calculate the multiple variables being thrown out by this administration at any moment.
When applied to economic and market expectations, it is a very dangerous proposition and a comparison of President Trump’s social media commentary yesterday to today demonstrates that point.
First up, starting with Sunday 4/20/25:
Thank you? It continues:
Thus he was able to attack not just China, but the United States’ major allies. And yes, it continues:
So while appearing to beg and threatening “RECIPROCITY” he is begging companies to relocate and build in America.
This of course was followed up yesterday with a blast at the Federal Reserve and Jay Powell which furthered an already shaky equity, credit, and currency market:
However, the evidence was easy to expose that no, not many world leaders were begging for a deal as highlighted by the Japanese experience trying to negotiate with the Trump administration. Charles Gasparino revealed that nightmare yesterday:
This was good for a major cratering of the markets of over 1200 Dow points which bounced back to finish down 961. Hurray, an end of day rally.
What did that portend or did one of Trump’s insider trading experts get a whiff of what he planned to say today?
Let’s review his comments from today’s Oval Office Press gaggle which were, for lack of any other adjective, incredible.
All this after a very questionable leak of a speech that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave to a private gathering of select JP Morgan investors at a closed door summit that created a bull bounce starting last night.
Market manipulation? Perhaps, but this wasn’t the first time, not the last time, and certainly not the only administration or Treasury Secretary to engage in this; right Janet?
But what it does exhibit is the very instability that the Japanese negotiators have been expressing in their own media and worries about the sustainability of any agreement with this administration. In the mind of the current Prime Minister the previous agreement with Abe is still in force and should be honored. Add to this fact that the Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa said this just on Friday (from The Japan News 4/18/25):
But Akazawa emphasized that despite the president’s hopes, any agreement would likely take some time.
“We’re not going to make a quick deal,” Akazawa said. “It’s difficult to say how long it will take to bridge the gap (between the two sides).”
In other words, the reports from Gasparino seem to be accurate and the Japanese team is waiting on Bessent and Company to get their act together. In fact when I heard that Trump showed up for the negotiations, all I could think about was this scene from the movie Too Big to Fail:
Trump is behaving just like the Gorilla, aka Dick Fuld at Lehman. And despite the happy happy joy joy face presented by the administration in the public the last 24 hours, there is an underlying fact that people fail to recognize.
Just as Dick Fuld insulted the Korean banker’s honor in that clip above, President Trump has spent almost two weeks degrading the nations of Asia with his random off the cuff commentary and insulting messages. This will not be forgiven quickly or easily by the leaders of those nations and indications are that mistrust is now at an all time high regarding economic matters.
The Uncertainty Principle is reigning supreme and for domestic and international investors alike, until the particles rotating around in President Trump’s head align with a consistent pattern indicating a unified message, there is no methodology for creating actual, viable trade deals or investing in the United States without a risk of great losses.
