Wake up you heathens!
It’s the most important employment report in the history of mankind. Don’t believe me? I’ve heard rumors that Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell will actually ascend to the peak of Mount Sinai and fetch the tablets with the data from the BLS Lords himself and share them exclusively with Steve Liesman 45 seconds before the competition can see them online.
One thing we can guarantee from the report today however, between the hotter PCE report on Thursday and this report today, Jay Powell will feel justified for parting the Potomac River and walking to the other side to get away from the President nagging him about the Eccles Building and interest rates.
The majority of the action has been in the currency and equity markets due to earnings season coinciding with the insane trade war deadline that Trump set for today. The data point today will probably be viewed with as big a yawn as the FOMC statement on Wednesday as a result. But what can we expect from our government today with all of the negative layoff news and warnings witnessed in July?
The harsh reality is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has remained somewhat consistent in job creation, which is unfortunate because the one statistic that defies their nonfarm payroll number is the unusually large number of people, of those who are counted, still looking for work after 27 weeks.
The reason this author has doubts about the methodology is because of the over politicization of American economic data to serve the purposes of the administration in power, regardless of party affiliation. While the increase of 190,000 people unemployed for over 27 weeks in May seems like a large number, odds are it truly is much higher as post-pandemic the Biden administration simply stopped counting to celebrate the economic miracle his administration’s inflationary policies promoted.
This brings us full circle to this eternal skeptic’s view of today’s report.
The May report will receive a final revision, probably slightly higher along with the June NFP report getting a minor bump up also. If the trends are validated based in historical cycles prior to economic hurricanes as this author expects, the July report should be somewhat boring, if not a cut and paste from June.
All predictions below are seasonally adjusted as reported by the mainstream media.
Non-Farm Payroll: + 131,000
U-3 Unemployment rate: 4.2%
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2%
U-6 Unemployment rate: 7.8%
Once the tariff indigestion is digested by the end of September, look for corporations to make even harsher decisions regarding overhead and begin eliminating some of the non-AI replaceable blue collar jobs which have been retained longer than many white collar positions.
A review of this report will be forthcoming in these pages later tonight.
