Nothing Matters Until 13:00

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Or unless the President issues another gaffefest on trade before then.

So what is 13:00?

For those unfamiliar with military time, it references 1 p.m. as in 1 o’clock this afternoon today.

Equity markets will do whatever they want, but what we are seeing in the Asian and early European trading sessions is a warning and for some strange reason the bubble seeking, instability ignoring, ever gambling American retail public thinks this stress is contained because Jay Powell has never let them down.

Obviously these souls missed all of November and December of 2018.

The US dollar is under pressure once again as the dollar index indicates since “Liberation Day” in early April.

The short term strength of the Euro might be notable with illusions of grandeur as that currency replacing King Dollar as the world reserve, the reality is that the relationship with the Japanese Yen is much more important:

Why is this critical? As yours truly has been outlining on social media via X over the last six weeks, there have been bouts of Japanese, possibly some Taiwanese, financial institutions apparently selling US Treasury bills to raise dollars in the overnight session. What the masses fail to see is what happens when the Bank of Japan allows the Yen to appreciate more while no longer participating in the longer duration US Treasury auctions as they have in the past.

Add in the potential for MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) being sold off as the risks of another US real estate crash appear to be increasing and there is no reason on earth for foreign banks or investors to hold any US government or GSE bond with a duration beyond five years.

In fact the yield on the US 30 year bond is already reflecting some of this risk aversion:

This brings us around to 13:00 today. There is for once a US Treasury auction which could be an indicator of foreign distrust or disinterest in long duration US securities.