The Major Problem With Iran: You Break It, You Buy It

In just hours or days from now, there is a strong possibility of American bombers, surface to surface missiles launched from US Navy vessels, and air-launched cruise missiles attacking various nuclear facilities and military targets inside of Iran in coordination with Israel. If this is the course of action that is chosen by President Trump, the implications of what happens next can be summed up by the honest evaluation called the “unknown unknowns” as no American can declare themselves a one hundred percent expert on Iran at this time.

The United States broke off all relations for obvious reasons after the hostage taking by the radicals in 1979 and since that time, depending on who is President and the current political winds attempted to moderate relations or support revolutionary groups who wished to overthrow the theocracy. As I wrote about earlier this week, the culmination to this conflict is coming to a close soon and there are inherent dangers ahead with an incorrect policy choice for the future.

The Regime Change Danger

Despite the calls from Israel for regime change in Tehran, Trump has been very careful parsing his words between we can make a deal to the leadership has to go. Regardless of what the President thinks, the conflict with Iran will not end until a new leader of Iran is in place as there will be no peace with Israel or US allies as long as the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) holds sway over the nation.

If it looks like America bombs Iran into submission destroying its economy and splintering the nation, there is a massive danger which our elitists in the State Department refuse to recognize and the monolithic thinking intelligence complex will simply ignore:

Iran is one of the most religiously, ethnically, and politically diverse nations as a bridge nation from the Middle East to all of Asia.

The map below highlights the diversity for everyone to understand the complexities to just simply removing the Ayatollah.

Obviously, if the IRGC was somehow overthrown, something that the United States has tried twice and failed at due to shortcomings in Washington, then the instability is obvious to where it would begin. Not only within the highly educated Persians longing for a better relationship with the West and East, the Baloch’s who are already in a conflict with Tehran (and neighboring Pakistan), the Azeri’s who have historical territorial claims, and of course the Kurds will all want their pound of flesh and regional autonomy. A civil war is all but guaranteed, and while that might seem good from a Western perspective to prevent a new theocracy, that also puts the security of the nuclear facilities and their contents at risk throughout Iran.

Regional Destabilization

Fast forward to the theoretical end of the Iranian regime, something the CIA has war gamed, the State Department deep think tanks considered, and an idea that Israel could care less about. If the United States returns to the George W. Bush of “nation state building” in the Middle East again, it will become an abject disaster. As the problems just highlighted above, there appears to be no real central plan or national leader for the country to fall behind.

Outside of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late Shah of Iran, he is the only one that has been presented by the West as a potential unifying force inside Iran despite no indications of popular support inside the country.

Despite making the rounds on American and Israeli television, the lack of a proper American international multi-level broadcasting, called propaganda during the Cold War for my younger readers, has failed to move the needle except within mainstream US opinion influencers and right wing neoconservative warmongers.

The bigger issue facing President Trump is the estimated 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq with another several hundred still stationed in Syria. If the mullahs grip on power is lost in Tehran, there will no longer be a central authority to keep a leash on the numerous Shi’ite militias and other radicalized terrorist groups inside of those nations from unleashing attacks on American targets. Add in the remnants of the Revolutionary Guard scattered into wind throughout western Iran and eastern Iraq and the formula for a new wave of modernized terrorist activity using long range drones and potentially something far worse is a realistic threat to the entire region.

The Clinton-Bush-Cheney-Obama State Building Disasters

History is littered with the United States unfortunately backing perceived allies then abandoning them at their time of need when real, potentially permanent change or a block against our perceived enemies was always on the brink. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Nicaragua, South Vietnam, and most recently Syria are just a few examples. God forbid if anyone reminds the Kurds of our betrayal after Gulf War I where they were left to a wanton slaughter at the hands of Saddam Hussein and his military.

If one takes an unbiased look at the situation today, if kinetic escalation is part of the plan, the odds are that the “plans” that the United States bureaucracy have in place are dated if not somewhat irrelevant to this current era. Despite decades of “freedom fighting” the world has tired of Euro-colonialism on behalf of the old European powers and now the death and economic destruction left behind by fifty plus years of unstructured, ill-planned adventurism by the US State Department and Pentagon.

Let’s take a pause and look at the situation on the ground in Iran, something that hopefully President Trump is taking a pause to analyze and understand with some sane advisers still around him. The United States can defeat the Tehran military easily due to two decades of incompetent decisions by the theocracy and will in fact have total superiority in all three aspects of a war in the air, on the ground, and easily at sea.

Historically however, America’s abandonment of the student uprisings in 1999 and 2009 has left a bitter taste in two generations of Iranians. Rightfully, like many of our former allies, the ability to trust the intent and outcomes imposed by American might raise doubts among the citizenry where ethnic and tribal revenge might be permitted versus a more civilized outcome within Iran’s borders.

From the perspective of asymmetric domestic and international conflict emanating inside Iran, our leadership is totally unprepared. Assuming that one needs to simply dust off the Iraq war and post-conflict game plan is not only foolish, it might well lead to a greater global destabilization which the war planners failed to anticipate.

Despite the smirking smiling face of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia as the US President submits to shaking the hand of an Al Qaeda terrorist, on the Arab street the US and those sheikdoms of the Arab Peninsula are only popular due to their rieaya or fidyah (welfare or ransom) which is paid to silent the poor and prevent discontent not only discontent domestically, but throughout the immediate Sunni world. Trump’s submission to Doha and Riyadh might play well in those regions, but internationally the only thing popular in the Islamic world about those regimes is their greenmail.

The major issue is that this nothing to do with a reaction from the over other 1.5 billion adherents to Islam who have a somewhat jaded view of Europe and the United States which would only worsen with another misadventure into the region. Instead of just checking instability in the Shia crescent, it might well spread on a global scale in addition to losing further trust in America from North Africa to Indonesia.

The Trump Trust Bluster

Unfortunately for the United States, the Trump bluster and ability to manipulate opinion in his first term seems to have lost its luster in 2025. As his first 100 days ended, a trade war, the promise of no further overseas adventurism, peace in Ukraine, and trust in his promises of “mass deportations” in the US has faded. Promise after promise going by the wayside seems to indicate that the uniparty and his ego, not a pragmatic deal making approach, have superseded more reasonable courses of action.

The impacts of a full on military adventure in Iran will go far beyond the geopolitical impacts and that is the most dangerous aspect of this next “two weeks to bend the curve” announced by Trump last night.

American foreign policy has been on very shaky ground for over 30 years now with every President violating campaign promises and bowing down to the supremacy of the bureaucratic overlords at the Pentagon, in Langley, and of course Foggy Bottom. If the administration does so this time however, one of the key aspects of his economic policies might well pay the biggest price of them all.

This begs the big question which President Trump alone must answer, and based on his social media postings and recent decisions might well be lacking:

What nation in their right mind would cut, honor, or believe a trade and tariff deal with this nation?

Japan has already announced this afternoon the following (via the Financial Times):

Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defence spending

The key excerpt is the opening sentence from the article:

Japan has cancelled a top-level meeting with the US after the Trump administration abruptly told Tokyo to spend more on defence, sparking anger in Washington’s closest Asian ally.

Emphasis is of course this author’s, but when one reads this story questions about the broader policy goals and ability to achieve them become apparent. Why would China trust the United States or Trump to negotiate in good faith when the goal posts are moved suddenly on a key ally?

Hell, why would the “new” Iranian government trust the US to have their backs if they ascend to power in Tehran after what has happened throughout history. It is not an absurd reach to tie all of this together as regional powers are looking to exploit and dissect Iran should it shatter, just like major economic powers like China will become infuriated should their cheap, reliable energy supply from the region be interrupted.

This is a most dangerous time for everyone in the world today, but unfortunately the adults do not appear to be in charge as promised in DC. The mantra of “trust the plan” and “4D chess” does not apply when the Iranians are playing nard and Trump still insists on the Deluxe Apprentice version of tic-tac-toe.

Be wary of the outcomes we might see in the days ahead, as all sides in this potential conflict are capable of gross miscalculations about the future.