For those that have followed this page for almost twenty years now, one has to understand that I do get fired up and emotional about boring old data. Not because of what it says, but because people ignore what it means and trust the insane pronunciations of individuals who live on larger than life appearances on television or the internet.
Thus why when I originally thought that I had blown the forecast for NFP on Friday, I figured that I needed to take a breather and review my approach as the data did not make sense. However, the divergence in the establishment survey and household survey continues. The variance I find most fascinating is that the survey response from the establishment continues to deteriorate while that aspect of the BLS data is held in higher regard by the financial media.
To understand why I am skeptical of the current data report, some of the household data is outright recessionary.
Let’s start with the multiple jobholder data. If this economy is so strong why are there more jobholders holding multiple jobs in the history of the data series since 1994?
That’s not a good indicator as historically that does look recessionary. But in raw numbers, how does this look?
If people have to hold a full time job and part time job to get by, the economy and inflation are not sending the signals that the BS artists at the BLS, Fed, and political elites are trying to send everyone.
Meanwhile, in millions, it’s even uglier:
Amazing, right?
Meanwhile, looking at U-6 the most accurate and broadest measure of unemployment which tracks more traditional measures indicates that unemployment realistically is tracking higher.
The non-seasonal rate is a much more accurate measure and does tend to indicate that the economy is trending towards a recession beginning, or worse, is already under way.
If one adds in the duration of unemployment with the data above, it is very disturbing to think just how bad the situation might really be.
This is not an indicator of a healthy economy still in an expansion mode.
Buckle up boys and girls as revisions could well provide a rear view mirror snap shot of disaster once again, long after an economic calamity has begun.
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