02.20.22 War Drums: 1600 UTC UPDATE – Showtime?

FEBRUARY 20, 2022 00:01 UTC – BY JOHN GALT

In a little over 12 hours from now, the 2022 Winter Olympics closing ceremonies will conclude in Beijing. There will be fireworks, celebrations, strict military discipline enforced dance routines, President Xi waving like Winnie the Poo, and NBC seeing the end of their ratings nightmare.

Then, shortly after the final closing comments on television, the window for a potential full scale war in Europe may begin. As I’ve stated in other articles, the first operational window would be from that moment until Wednesday February 23rd or just a tad beyond that. The fact that the idiot Blinken has agreed to meet with Lavrov is an irrelevant distraction as it seems the State Department and our intel agencies have fired all of their old Sovietologists, hence, they have no insight into the potential mindset of what is about to happen.

Pray for the people in that region and that somehow world peace is maintained. The risks are quite high for a major mistake with the inept leadership on all sides, especially in the West.

(Fyi, this thread will remain dynamic and will be updated throughout the day until a new one is posted at 00:01 UTC for the next day-JG)

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02.20.22 1600 UTC UPDATE:

Showtime?

The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics have come to a close with a giant fireworks display.

China closes Winter Olympics, claiming win as divide with West grows

Are there more fireworks in the offing as sunset approaches Kiev?

Meanwhile, from RT (Russian media):

Putin and Macron agree on measures to halt escalation in Ukraine

On the other side of this announcement, there is a deeper dive which reveals the following in this Tweet thread:

Statement also says they agreed on intensive efforts to pave the way for the holding of a meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group [meant to help resolution of the conflict in Donbas] in the coming hours, with the aim of securing guarantees of ceasefire along the line of contact

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) February 20, 2022

I am not for reading to much into such statements, particularly from autocratic leaders, but the Russian readout makes it sound like the Kremlin did not budge at all, and just repeated accusations against Ukraine and need for “security guarantees”.

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) February 20, 2022

Meanwhile, more reports of the Russian Navy and landing craft on the move tonight:

And more with video:

📹kerchnovosti pic.twitter.com/WnGRP7Foh5

— Massimo Frantarelli (@MrFrantarelli) February 20, 2022

Departure at this time would be consistent with a an overnight landing or assault in the early morning.

Not to mention this disturbing NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions):

The weather conditions for tonight and tomorrow are ideal along with a decent seven day forecast. I’ve chosen Kharkiv as the primary location via Accuweather.com:

Remember two things folks as this moves forward:

1. Politicians lie. They always have, always will and our intel community is full of former and wannabe political elites.
2. Real people are impacted by war. Most people see a two minute snippet on their local news or one of the Fake News channels and say “that’s sad” and log into their Facebook, Snapchat, whatever and drift off into social media fueled oblivion. The reality is that real suffering has happened and even more will happen.

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02.20.22 1200 UTC UPDATE:

The “Z” for Zorro IFF identifiers are more prevalent in videos this morning from the border of Ukraine:

Again tons of videos like that today from Belgorod region. Russian convoys, manned, packed with equipment, winter camo and the mystical “Z” marking. pic.twitter.com/MviTDgozkV

— marqs (@MarQs__) February 20, 2022

Белгородская обл pic.twitter.com/Hj67gCdxvF

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) February 20, 2022

And a very logical explanation in this Tweet:

From the Moscow Times this morning, this not so shocking change of policy:

Russian Forces to Stay in Belarus as Ukraine Braced for War

Pravda never fails to disappoint with their propaganda but if indeed a conflict developed between the thousand or so troops in Transnistria and the Ukrainian military, that would be the instant trip wire for a full fledged Russian attack without question.

Interestingly, there is still equipment moving from the Far East military districts, almost as if the Russian military is expecting a wider conflict possibly with NATO. This video was reportedly filmed in Ulan-Ude this morning:

Улан-Удэ pic.twitter.com/lTsHjoDXYQ

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) February 20, 2022

The inflammatory comments by inexperienced bureaucrats is not helping the situation:

A hint that things are getting ready to go hot; when the transponders are turned off for civilian satellite services:

And one more hint that things are getting warmed up for action:

Another ominous development, but not unexpected:

And a sad reminder of just how much the “West” cares about the souls who are attacked by the Russian Federation:

The closing ceremonies in Beijing are about to begin. Stay tuned.

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With that commentary out of the way, here is the start of an overnight thread which hopefully indicates the direction this situation is heading.

02.20.22 0300 UTC UPDATE:

Add in the Washington Post with their belatedly own insights also:

NBC News breaks this story on a Saturday night meaning things are far worse than the media has been letting on:

It just looks grimmer and grimmer. The world is at the precipice once again.

That is a truly disturbing statement. It means the first distribution of troops into the “launch” or “go” positions has occurred. This means that the invasion is quite imminent as they can not remain in the forests with all of their equipment undiscovered for too long.

Meanwhile, the AFP reports from NATO, of course, on a Saturday night when Americans are not paying attention:

Meanwhile Woody Woodpecker is back, aka, OTHR (Over the Horizon Radar) on the shortwave bands:

The The Sunday Times has the story of the day, and it would not appear to be good news except for political elites in trouble due to their Covid policies:

Of course the UK Daily Mail goes full drama queen with the British drama queen:

If we don’t stop Vladimir Putin now the Baltic States will be next, Liz Truss warns: Foreign Secretary makes call for international unity in face of Putin’s provocation

Meanwhile, in forgotten parts of the region:

The PMR (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic), aka, Transnistria, has entered the news as expected since there has been at least one Russian battalion sized group based their for years. From the government new website Novosti Pridnestrovya (translation via Google):

Departments of the Ministry of Defense conducted night firing

Excerpt:

The day before, the combat coordination of platoons was completed. The actions of the units were checked at night, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of the PMR reports .

At the previous stages of combat coordination of platoons in motorized rifle subunits, a control-tactical lesson and live firing took place during the day.

At night, the limited visibility of the target field made live shooting more difficult. Shooting from machine guns of armored personnel carriers and small arms was carried out with tracer ammunition. At various distances, the “armored vehicles” and the “infantry group” of the mock enemy were hit.

While the military effectiveness of these units is minor from a tactical or strategic perspective, the idea that this website has proposed to indicate a link up occurring with Russian forces attacking from the North and South to absorb the long contested Transnistria region into a new pro-Russian Ukrainian sphere is not without consideration.

Another disturbing development at this moment:

If vehicles are transiting this bridge overnight, odds are the offensive could begin as predicted after dark or at sunset tomorrow night.

Here is a fascinating opinion piece from Mark Galeotti in the UK Telegraph, well worth reading, but I find it hard to agree with some of his conclusions as the Western perspective definitely taints the objectiviy within this article:

Vladimir Putin would be mad to invade Ukraine – but he might just do it

Excerpt:

Common sense would suggest that Vladimir Putin is carrying out one of the most intricate and expansive bluffs ever.

However, as Western leaders warn of imminent escalation, the alarming possibility is that what looks disastrously self-destructive to outsiders may seem logical – even necessary – to him.

If Moscow does launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that the West claims is imminent, it is hard to understand the logic. 

If one considers the Russian, and more importantly Communist Chinese mindset, an invasion of Ukraine would be 100% logical.

And more “exercise” equipment on the move earlier yesterday:

And another “fyi” watch where these units suddenly appear should fighting break out:

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