Edit to add 05:25 a.m. ET:
– No sooner than I had published this brief update and BOOM! Down goes the futures. Rapid deterioration in just a half hour so all bets on today’s market action are now off. Let’s just leave it at this; if the markets sell off in a major way today and there is high volume, the immediate risk of a major crash rise proportionally.
As if yesterday was not far enough away in everyone’s memories, the reality of today is about to set in. The usual suspects on the Bubblevisions proclaimed that the Amazon earnings were fantastic and the 400 point rally in the stock after hours created a huge rally in the futures markets overnight.
Then again, real analysts, not pump and dump promoters pried open the hood of the earnings and took a look at them, it wasn’t as “hot” as advertised:
60X PE for $AMZN – Where will be in 3mths Q1-22?— Douglas Orr, CFA (@EquitOrr) February 4, 2022
i) Sales 4% downgrade today – so ecommerce likely delivering even larger losses (-$2bn Q4-21!)
ii) RIVN mark to market -$4bn in losses – stock down -50% since 👀
In other words, much like how the financial stocks reported utter nonsense in 2018 and 2019, the big boys in Big Tech have learned the tricks of the trade also. Thus if markets do rally today, I expect the smart money to sell into the short covering probably fueling a morning rally despite the jobs numbers.
As of about 5 a.m. this morning, the update from Investing.com reflects this:
The employment numbers due out at 8:30 a.m. ET though are not the big story of the day. It is crude oil and if indeed we see both WTI and Brent top $92-$93 today, then that will crush the bulls like a meat grinder.
Stay tuned, this won’t be dull.
[…] My largest concerns expressed this morning came true. […]
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