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09.30.21 Market Summary: Less than Optimal


Today was one of those rare office days which meant I could my phone, laptop, and one monitor watching the markets with one eyes while figuring out how to help my customers figure out shortcuts to get raw materials to their facilities.

Neither endeavor went well if one considers themselves “bullish” by any stretch of the imagination.

The S&P 500 looked for most of the day like it would win the tug of war and hold above the 100 day moving average (DMA) to close out Q3.

Uh, no:

THAT market close in the last half hour heading into Q4 is going to leave a mark and will have a lasting impression from a technical standpoint. The failure to hold the 100 DMA, erase the handle in an inverse cup and handle formation, and worse, recover some of the big name stocks which broke badly this week indicates that the market risk for a larger crash is accelerating.

Volume as of 6 p.m. ET was considerably higher today than yesterday with selling (distribution) into each 5 minute bar during the market’s attempted rallies today. Add in the bovine scattology from Washington, D.C., the loss of faith in the Federal Reserve, and all the Huckstervision channels still screaming BTFD, and the formula for something much, much worse is in the offing.

Like taking out the 200 DMA and 2021 lows in very short order. A crash below 3750 in a day or a week will break the markets and indicate a much lower price floor; perhaps back to one year ago or worse, the long awaited retest of the March to April 2020 lows. Time will tell but if you haven’t taken your profits yet, you are a freaking fool.

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