Published 08.10.21 05:30 ET –
Actually I will throw my dart at the board in a second but all of the Bubblevisions have been projecting 500K to 800K for a range even though there are some outliers from the “economists” in the weeds of over 1 million and even zero.
My dart says we’ll come in with a lame 125K to 150K and it will create a potential mini-rally in equities which will once again result in heartbreak as the smart money is still selling into every rally. Just like yesterday after 2:30 p.m. Eastern time when the market declined from a 560 point high point to a weak 338 point upsurge on poor volume. This is classic bearish behavior and the charts bear that out.
First up the S&P 500:
It’s almost as if a textbook demonstration of a bear market is being set up with a gap up in the morning, rally to the 50 day moving average, failure, the rollover like a fat dog wanting its belly rubbed. The DJIA did the same:
The NASDAQ is behaving even worse:
The warnings about what will probably happen next are being displayed everywhere. The Dow Transports are a good example:
The internationally central bank equity of Apple (AAPL) is also displaying a hint it might make a dramatic move down:
And what I wold consider a warning to the inflationistas, the raw materials sector is also sending warning signals as one of the largest miners in the world is showing signs of breaking down. Freeport McMoRan is hinting that an economic slowdown might be coming as it has broken down technically and the inflation trade may be ending it’s “transitory” course soon:
Thus if the futures rally over some miracle number from the BLS but treasuries sell off further, the rollover will hit this afternoon as the “debt ceiling” drama fades and the hard economic reality of shortages and cost inflation start to hit the earnings reports. Stay tuned because today looks to be a roller coaster in the markets.
Meanwhile, my readers may want to stock up on some Deathburgers; I think I shall be firing up that old grill again soon.