The past two weeks the headlines have been screaming the pandemic economy is recovering, the Biden economic plan is awesome, and that the unemployment claims numbers are reminiscent of the 1960’s.
Keep in mind the media, especially the used car buy my ETF salesman “financial” news wants to sugarcoat a turd and claim it’s a lifetime supply of M&M’s. The administration which reports these numbers wanted them to look better so if the “seasonal adjustments” are done by a unicorn tutu wearing stoner, so be it.
The reality is that the seasonal adjustments this time of year do a miserable job of taking into account the holiday time period:
- The three weeks of Christmas are usually when people migrate to see their families or even if unemployed, rarely file because they know they won’t receive their first check until after the first of the year anyways.
- Most states were shut down to accept and investigate claims for almost half of those weeks. Odds are the majority of states really only worked on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday at best, less during Christmas and New Year’s weeks. Thus data reporting is sketchy at best.
- The seasonal adjustments assume factories which were shuttered before Christmas will resume production and basically bypasses counting many of those workers as they are assumed to return to full employment when the holidays end.
It’s absurd but that’s reality under any administration so I am not singling out the Senile Junta.
The chart speaks a much louder reality though as a new trend line might be emerging:
With the supply chain shortages continuing to worsen, look for more layoffs as factories shutter for longer and longer periods of time; in some cases perhaps months. I just wonder how the media will present this as a “pandemic recovery” in the face of real facts and data which may well indicate real claims topping 500,000 per week in just weeks.
Never mind, just kidding, they’ll make up the facts and data to fit their narrative.