Buckle up ladies and gents.
This could be a wild one with options expiration, bank failures and rumors of bank failures, credit contracting, and a Fed meeting next week.
In the pre-market everyone just wants to get the S&P 500 up to 4,000 then offload and close out their options and then start drinking green beer. Thus by afternoon the action could get pretty loose in the equity markets.
Meanwhile the last two times US Treasury volatility hit these levels, well, the chart speaks for itself (MOVE index):
Full size chart from the fine folks at Hedgeye via this tweet:
The MOVE Index just hit 198 yesterday. Rare air. pic.twitter.com/nPcOQXC9XE— Joshua Steiner (@HedgeyeFIG) March 16, 2023
There is only one key level to watch this week as it ends and that is if the US 2 year Treasury yield closes below 4%. That would be a frighteningly bearish indication that there is a massive problem on the horizon that the political elites and banksters do not want you to know about.
Stay tuned as we could be cranking up some Petula Clark or just not show up until the FDIC does later on tonight after consuming stupid quantities of green beer and corned beef with cabbage.