The insanity of the permabulls and pumper dumper crowd never ceases to amaze me. While trying to take care of my family this weekend, I spent a lot of time watching recordings of the Bubblevision networks and sure enough there they were again.
An example from last Friday is one of CNBC’s permabulls who seems to think that the “data” that is current doesn’t reflect a recession even though last quarter had a negative GDP print:
“It feels like a recession because we’re all talking about it,” says @CerityPartners’ @jlebenthal, “but if you look at the numbers right now that add up to where the economy is, it just doesn’t spell recession.” pic.twitter.com/c0wKq6k3uY— CNBCOvertime (@CNBCOvertime) June 17, 2022
Apparently old Jim doesn’t get out very much and in the real world, evidence of a decline in economic activity is everywhere including the start of layoffs and hiring freezes. Oh, and the inventory chart of what retailers have on hand isn’t exactly bullish:
Or this clown who perpetually calls for S&P gazillion:
The truth is going to hurt. I have been consistent about a second wave down to 3100ish which is what this market appears to be in the middle of. I stand by that prediction based on not just commodity action, credit market reaction, but political incompetence adding to the fear factor for investors.
Unfortunately, as this online poll by CNBC Overtime reflects, there is not enough fear yet to introduce rational decision making into the markets:
They never learn. It’s never “time to buy” until the fear and terror of losing 90% of one’s portfolio is there or has been realized. The big money, the smart money, has been selling into every rally be it in credit markets or the equity arena. The sell off in commodities at the end of last week was nothing more than profit taking which will now allow the bid to resume into the July 4th holiday creating more headaches for the dazed and confused bunch at the Fed.
The German people actually get it:
Yet the average American investor is totally oblivious to everything happening overseas, missing the clear technical signals that this is not the end of just any bull market but the longest one in history, and failing to see that the political situation in the West (US, UK, EU, and Japan) is in similar dire straits as it was in 1930.
The first break below 3,400 on the S&P 500 will be the one that breaks the spirit. The first crash below 3100 will scare the hell out of many but the BTFD and “once in a lifetime” hucksters will provide a short term 30-60 day bounce.
Buckle up folks, it’s about to get real not just in markets, but in the real world. Inflation is going to worsen this summer and heading into the fall. Politically, wars are going to start, stop, then expand again. Shortages are about to finally impact the American people who have never experienced want in their lifetimes.
Prepare for the bear as papa bear is about to wake up from his sleep and he has been sleeping since 1981.