The media, especially the financial and mainstream media, once again interjected politics to proclaim that the Boeing strike and two major hurricanes hitting the US in September and October were the reason that the unemployment was sort of mediocre and hiring slowed down in the US last month.
The headlines were almost Soviet in their production value:
The U.S. added just 12,000 jobs in October as a strike and hurricanes hit employment – NBC News
Hurricanes, strikes seen denting US job growth as Americans prepare to vote – Reuters
October jobs report shows slower hiring in the wake of strikes, hurricanes – USA Today
I think my readers get the gist of the theme.
So what really happened?
Let’s review non-seasonally, aka, actual not the nonsense adjusted crap, real unemployment claims from the states impacted most by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Week 1, Helene:
If one takes just one moment to note, the claims levels were below June levels of this year. Thus the baseline for an expansion was quite low. Yet Hurricane Helene’s destruction from Florid through Georgia then North Carolina was historic.
Week 2, Helene Impacts Begin:
The claims were still somewhat suppressed in Florida as the storm came ashore in a less populated area and the damages in central and northeastern Georgia was still be assessed. But in North Carolina, the damage was massive and realized immediately.
Week 3, Helene Recovery:
The excuse for the hurricanes impacting hiring and unemployment data begins to look quite week now. The reporting on October 12th is in the peak of the BLS reporting season yet they “seasonally adjusted” the data for other reasons even though this excuse was offered on the webpage for the November 1st non-farms payroll report:
This begs the question; what is the excuse for the sub-45% response rate for non-hurricane periods the past 3 years since the pandemic?
Week 4, Milton Impacts Realized:
Outside of Florida, the hurricane impacts appeared to have normalized. Weird, isn’t it?
Week 5, Hurricanes Exit the News:
Unfortunately for the BLS, the data non-seasonally adjusted does not lie. As a resident in one of the most impacted states, with numerous customers dealing with recover, I can confirm the statements that I’ve added to the graph above.
The problem is the average investor, be it a hedge fund on Wall Street or some sucker on penny stock trading app on their iPhone only reads headlines and news flashes. They do not dig deeper for the truth.
The reality is this:
Hurricanes from Beryl through Milton have had impacts but minimal over the long term employment picture. Perhaps real economic weakness is the real concern but God forbid Wall Street listen to that reality.
They would rather believe the tropical hot air being spewed on financial television.
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