I apologize to my non-social media followers nor those without my twisted sense of humor (not really) but the great Flappr on Twitter/X always cracks me up with his sometimes obscene, usually hilarious weekly takes.
However, if one looks at just how absurd US bond and equity markets have been the past 20 years, obscene barely describes just what has been happening.
This brings us to a quick look at something that poked it’s headlights into the dark today as the decline in the TLT, the iShares 20 year US Treasury Bond ETF which represents a great sentiment indicator of the US bond market from the 10 year yield and longer, decided to vote on the trade war even more.
Needless to say, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will not like the results.
The trend which broke to the upside during the Fed premature easing to pump Kamala in the election, is rolling over hard and right now appearing to be heading back for a retest of the January lows.
If one breaks the chart out further, say four years plus, it looks even worse:
If the price drops below 75 it means the trade war is going poorly and markets do not trust the future outcome, especially since the GOP is back to playing parlor games with the budget and preparing to load America’s future up with even more debt.
Buckle the hell up, the next 60 plus days are going to be wild folks.
