Trump Now Has His Peace in Our Time Moment

Congrats, I guess?

Preceding this was another “Truth” on his social media site which simply said this:

In other words, this war is over because we said it’s over. Even if both parties do but don’t want it to be over.

Of course Israel and Iran are both testing the voracity of the ceasefire with launches right up to the last moment by Iran and reports of Mossad squads active in Iran after the time it was due to begin. That of course triggered this early morning “Truth” from Trump:

Hopefully it holds as well as the “trade deal” with China from 2020 did and we have the region finally calming down.

I think it is safe to ignore the clown show token attack by Iran on “American” bases throughout the Middle East and break down the world’s winners and losers, both short and long term, as this crisis appears to come to an end.

I. WINNERS

1. Vladimir Putin – Not only did he not have to put any of his major and modern military hardware at risk against the Israeli military, but he gets to laugh and spew a big “I told you so” on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) who refused to take the Russian military’s advice to upgrade air defense systems and the IRGC air assets. Now that the IRGC leaders who blundered in this decision are going to get removed, probably head first, odds are a quiet modernization program might start. Which leads us to the next winner on the list.
2. China – The Chinese military had a deal in place to sell the same if not more modern J-10C aircraft which performed quite well for Pakistan against the Indian Air Force along with PL-15 air to air missile and some of their latest surface to air defense systems. Once again, the IRGC decided to focus on creating MRBM’s, setting up for future development of ICBM’s, and drones which are great if one’s military is based on performing terrorist hit and run attacks but horrible for long range standoff trading punches with a more capable first world opponent. Since China’s number one supplier of crude oil didn’t get obliterated and the new Belt and Road rail system to Urumqi from northern Iran was unscathed, both sides can now increase trade and cooperation as Iran rebuilds.
3. President Donald J. Trump – He gets to declare peace in our time, or at least for the moment. A victory worth of a Nobel is how it will be sold to the masses and sure, why not? One of the awards was given to Obama for being, checks notes, the first “black” President of the US. The see I told you so moment of 2025 will be used to issue NFTs, gold plated memorial coins, t-shirts, coffee cups and God knows what else. As great as this victory will be promoted to the American public, the next war will be a lot tougher and truly the one with much greater consequence for the entire globe.
4. Saudi Arabia and the GCC – While Iraq and Syria continue to be battlegrounds for radicals, once again the GCC’s mercenary forces protected them from getting a scratch.
5. Yair Golan – Head of the Israeli Labor Party now called The Democrats, their silent moderation during this entire conflict will provide a major boost to ousting Likud in the upcoming elections.

II. LOSERS

1. Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu – The road is coming to an end. Unless he can false flag his way into a nuclear war with Iran, the long awaited removal and prosecution for other crimes will come within the year. While Bibi might have used the state of emergency to forestall this reckoning, a tired, exhausted, and angry Israeli public is upset with the miscalculation of Iran’s ability to strike within Israel. The economic damage might usher in another era of liberal politicians who will act militarily strong but do everything possible to resolve the problems which have lead to the war since October 7, 2023. In the end, Bibi will be the scapegoat for the destruction inside of Israel.
2. The Israeli Economy – The costs are going to be massive to rebuild not just the civilian structures destroyed, but to restore the hardware used by the IDF and IAF over the past year plus of constant warfare. The United States will not tolerate any more unlimited conflicts by Israel’s leadership to maintain political power nor blindly finance any more military adventures by its leadership.
3. Ayatollah Khamenei – Looking as lost and incompetent as former President Biden, the senile elder leader of Iran will quietly be pushed out into the sunset Islamist style. His miscalculations and refusal to follow the advice of younger leaders led to this disaster so at this point of time his days are numbered like the fat virgins waiting for him in the great beyond.
4. US Senator Lindsey Graham – He’s run out of wars to promote on Fox News and profiteer from with the defense establishment.
5. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty/IAEA – Why bother cooperating with them or signing the treaty if one’s nation is going to get bombed in the end? North Korea and the short fat dude proved the only strategy that works is to demonstrate you have the nukes before anyone can stop your nation.
6. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – The war between Iran and Israel proved one thing; he’s a distant second or third fiddle on the West’s ally list. Perhaps if he had discovered oil and declared himself a sheik he might have had better luck, but now he’s got a major problem to deal with. The Iran conflict drained the US and Israel of much of their anti-missile defense systems and those units will have to be replenished long before he sees another Patriot missile system unless the administration finds one lying around in the corner of the Pentagon’s dusty old basement. The priority will be a re-armament flow into Israel for many months to come in addition to resupplying the US forces in that region. Kiev will be lucky to receive anything for quite some time.
7. NATO – They just proved once again that as a military alliance they are pretty much useless when the bigger nations engage in a major conflict. Europe since the 1980’s has been nothing more than a bus passenger and this conflict just validated that line of thinking in the world. The clock is ticking on just how much longer the United States will carry the military weight for the European freeloaders.
8. Anyone Long Oil – Any one who hedged or wagered this war would continue for months and months as the propaganda machines in Tehran and Tel Aviv proclaimed thinking $100 WTI was probably just loss it all. The lesson? Never believe the fog of war until several oil tankers are actually on fire in the Straits of Hormuz. Add in the fact that Trump wants the US domestic industry to drill baby drill even if it results in very low margins or losses, there is no reason to believe oil can and will hold at current price levels.
9. President Trump’s Credibility –

If any nation engages in a trade, defense, or any agreement with this administration they are fools. That lesson became clear to Xi and China after the 2020 Phase One Trade Agreement was violated by Trump v2.0. Iran naively thought that the US would keep the Israelis on a leash, at least until a chance at the JCPOA being restored would occur. Now there is very little change anyone will take this braggadocios approach to economics and diplomacy seriously, not at least if their nation’s future is at risk.

This is not a comprehensive list, just a first glance as the dust is starting to settle. I’m sure as developments warrant, and there are plenty more to come, these pages will offer more commentary as this region hopefully will fade into the distance so all of us can focus on the larger conflict which is approaching the world just over the horizon.