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The Reason and Consequences of the Fall of Syria

By John Galt on 12/10/2024

Before this short opinion piece proceeds any further, as a student of history for the region, this author is in no way, shape, or form endorsing nor supporting the actions of the Assad family over the past 50 years.

Now that the air is clear, the fall of Assad is both a blessing and a disaster for the region. Syria was always an amalgamation of tribal factions where Sunni met Shiite, Christian versus Islam, and various groups of extremes from all conflicting in the historic lands.

For anyone to say that Assad and his Ba’ath ideology were unique to each nation have not been paying attention to history. From a BBC article in 2012, here is a bit of history about the foundations of the party his father promoted:

The Baath Party was founded in 1947 by Michel Aflaq, a Syrian teacher, whose brand of radical Arab nationalism won supporters across the region.

The party’s early slogan “unity, freedom, socialism” attracted a generation of Arab political activists who wanted to overthrow the European-backed governments of the Middle East and create a modern industrial economy.

This is why the Assad family dynasty ended this past weekend as the son strayed from Pan-Arabism and into the corruptness that usually ends in a dictatorship which crushes the citizenry and forms alliances only to maintain personal power. It is no different from any tinpot dictator in Latin America or Africa nor what has happened during any collapse the world has witnessed in the past 50 years.

The military had not nationalist cause to fight for, not financial reason to defend the “homeland”, and no leadership worth the rank they held, while in the mean time the bureaucracy traded power for favors to enhance the wealth of select individuals. Almost sounds like the Pentagon, doesn’t it?

Consequences

The consequences are already becoming visible inside of Syria (warning PG+18 video):

The Christians will end up being slaughtered the minute the video can no longer be reported and the Western media departs the country.

Meanwhile the former ruling Alawite sect and its party’s supporters are going to get slaughtered as has already begun.

This is just the beginning. If and when the killing fields of Syria are ever uncovered in my lifetime, it will look similar to Iraq and Sudan, where thousands from all sides are found slaughtered yet none for the advancement of the citizenry. The real consequences will be geopolitical however, and that’s where the winners and losers will be determined.

Winners, Losers, and Worse

Let’s keep this simple for my readers. The following is my opinion only and despite what Western and Eastern commentators are offering, the reality is there are no real winners but for the purposes of debate, this is this author’s opinion on how this shall be evaluated in the grand finale over a decade later.

Winner: Israel

A destabilized Syria, shattered with no national purpose or unity, ends the threat from Iran directly on their doorstep, cuts the supply lines to Hezbollah, and allows the IDF to terminate the threat from Lebanon with impunity.

The nation of Israel will have at least a half decade to rebuild its northern settlements, establish Druze Christian safe zones with a re-armed functioning militia, and permanently put a buffer beyond the Golan Heights into Syria up to Mount Harmon to prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israeli territory with rockets and missiles for the foreseeable future.

The cost to Israel financially has been massive. This war has cost them pain for a younger generation never experienced in a terrorist conflict and will leave deep psychological scars. Gaza will have to be occupied, something that the Israeli nation does not want but now has no alternative. For the nation about to endure a major leadership change, it’s a weird sort of blessing that no conflict with Iran is on the horizon.

Winner and Loser: Russia

Russia wins in the short term as they are able to keep their air base and naval station in the Latakia province for the short term. Despite losing their ally in the region, over the short term the financial and military burden of tying down resources in a losing cause has been concluded. The SAA was a paper tiger, Assad was in it for the show not for his nation, and the tribalism which has reigned supreme for a thousand years returns to the region.

In the end though, this is a major black eye for Lavrov and Putin in the region. The inability to support their puppet will be viewed by nations in the Sahel region of Africa with a concerned viewpoint as to their alliances and for the Arabs in the region, an instant rise in the distrust of Russia’s ability to deliver is an inevitable conclusion.

Winner and Loser: Turkey

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will undoubtedly be viewed as a winner in the short term, however his gambit in Syria might well backfire on his nation in the decade to come. Russia will continue to do business with his nation for now, but the level of distrust will prevent any further improvement in relations thus hardening Russia’s Black Sea military approach and potentially creating new proxy conflicts in the Caucuses.

The big win for Erdoğan however is in northern Iraq and Syria. If incoming President Trump follows through with his commitment to a full withdrawal of US forces from the Kurdish regions in both nations, odds are Turkey will engage in full blown invasion and liquidation of all Kurdish opposition.

An additional benefit to this action will be the Iranian’s silent blessing of this genocide as they will no longer have to commit resources outside of their nation and the Shiite regions of Iraq.

Unfortunately for the Turkish people, this will become an expensive conflict in every regard. Terrorism will spread like wildfire inside their own nation. The Turkish military will learn that the very same tactics they funded, armed, and endorsed with HTS and other form Al Qaeda forces will be used against their forces in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey.

A decade from now, a destabilized neighbor to the south might well be a nightmare more than the blessing it appears to be now.

Winner: Iran

This might sound bizarre, but in the short and long term, the nation of Iran will be a winner. They no longer have to commit resources to attack Israel indirectly via Hezbollah. In the bigger picture however, they can avoid a direct confrontation with Israel and the United States while painting a picture of “moderation” to the rest of the world while they expand trade and re-armament with China and Russia.

Hezbollah will fade into irrelevancy as their financial and military support will wither away barring some other nation in the region replacing Iran’s support which is highly unlikely.

Economically and politically this could be the very result which provides the appearance of a new “moderate” regime with some improvement in economic stability despite violent oppression and opposition at home.

Loser: Qatar

The sheikdom might well have paid for another violent revolution but the odds of their long desired pipeline between their gas fields and Europe are nothing more than an internet fantasy from a decade ago. The fields discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean under control of the Israeli energy suppliers and potentially a stabilized Lebanese government could easily replace the Qatari’s supply with a much more secure, shorter series of pipelines.

In addition, the distrust from the Saudis plus other nations in the Sunni world towards Qatar is now only increased tenfold as their actions in the past to support other Arab nation’s resistance movements will now be viewed with a much more sharpened awareness. The Emir of Qatar might well find his political power isolated within his own state in the years to come.

Loser: United States

The various terrorist organizations the US vowed to destroy after September 11, 2001 are now in power in Afghanistan, parts of Iraq, parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and now Syria.

The fallacy that by rebranding Al Qaeda and ISIS as ‘freedom fighters’ is a winning strategy will bite the US in the ass when all is said and done. Even the state controlled media in the US is attempting to paint a terrorist whom the US State Department has a $10,000,000 bounty on as an “inclusive” moderate:

In the end, once the slaughter is over with and buried deep in the US media after Trump ascends to power next year, these very same people will first beg for aid then in return, launch a new more complex terrorist network throughout Europe and North America.

Sadly for the Kurds, they will be given the HW Bush treatment again also once American military might has left the region by next summer. The Iraqis, Turks, and worse Syrian Salafists will unleash their fury on the Kurdistan region when the cameras are turned off and media attention focuses on the latest Trump or Putin news of the day.

Loser: The Kurdish People

The one constant throughout Middle Eastern history is that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Now that the Kurds have outlived their usefulness to Turkey and the Sunni militias in Syria, they will be eradicated for a lack of a better term.

As the United States withdraws military support from Syria, the conflict will intensify and worse, expand beyond the Syrian border as Turkish troops will likely invade from the North.

In this author’s opinion a genocide of historic proportions is a direct possibility as Iran and Iraq will conclude a “deal” with Turkey to finalize the elimination of what has been termed the “Kurdish Problem” once and for all in both Iraq and Syria by the end of 2026.

The Biggest Loser: PLO, aka, Palestinian Cause

In less than two years the largest sponsors of the former Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian Authority are no more. The land bridge from Syria and Iran is no more. The ability to resupply Gaza from Egypt and the sea, gone. The PA is now on its own and will be subjected to the harshest of terms now that their network of terror support is destroyed.

The current leadership of the PA is stuck in the idealism of Arafat, thus a deal or compromise will probably not occur in 2025. But in 2026, hopefully a younger group of leaders will come forward and end the conflict with Israel and reach a peaceful agreement once and for all.

Conclusion

There were no good guys in this civil war.

Innocents will be slaughtered, sectarianism expanded, and regional instability returned to levels unseen since 1973.

The international axis in the Levant has been altered for at least a decade; perhaps longer.

For the minorities of Syria and Lebanon, pray for their souls. The new leaders of Syria are not known for mercy or rationality which ultimately leads to reprisals against both the guilty and innocent.

Godspeed to all of the innocents.

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John Galt
John Galt

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