Sitzkreig aka СИДЕНЬЯ ВОЙНЫ
Welcome to the 2022 version of “sitzkreig” designed to wear down the West (again) and mock the idiocy of NATO’s policies until it is too late.
In 1940, the Nazi Germans finished their victory in Poland, moved west and threatened the rest of Europe to the English Channel and North Sea. In the interim before their move against Belgium, France, and Holland, the “Sitzkreig” or “phony war” ensued. Nothing happened. Oh, there was occasional trading of shelling, some sporadic spying activity, observation flights, aircraft encounters, etc., but in the end, it was just that; a non-event.
Then suddenly it wasn’t.
If this author is correct, the world is in that phase. When it ends, a lightning war, aka, Blitzkrieg, of historic proportions unseen since 1940 will envelope the poor citizens of Ukraine. The “West” will be shocked, horrified, then stunned that the “slavish” were capable of such a modern warfare concept.
In the end, it will reflect 25 years of ignorance, blissful wishful thinking, and the beginning of a new era in the world which marks the end of Pax Americana.
What will truly shock the world is the speed, and ability, of the Russian forces to win this battle. If Putin backs down, odds are he will not be long for the world and his leadership will be quite short lived.
This is an all or nothing proposition; if Putin fails to win this gambit politically and/or militarily, he will be replaced by a hardliner. If he wins and the nation of Ukraine is re-abosrbed into the Russian sphere, he resigns as a hero, helping to restore the old Soviet model.
Tonight, the news is still dire. And until there is concrete evidence of a full Russian withdrawal, remember the following story from the New York Times in 2008:
02.17.22 1700 ET UPDATE:
THE most important reminder tweet of the day:
Meanwhile in the Donbass:
More damage to civilian infrastructure in Stanytsia Luhanska after recent shelling tonight, luckily no casualties reportedpic.twitter.com/JQAPfUPA5s— marqs (@MarQs__) February 17, 2022
Ouch. This is not a good sign heading into the evening.
People are on pins and needles throughout Eastern Ukraine tonight as this Tweet also demonstrates:
Meanwhile in the Kursk region:
Курская обл pic.twitter.com/jqOVC2sZyj— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) February 17, 2022
In the Donbass region, things are seriously heating up:
More helicopter squadrons are re-locating closer to the border so this is getting spicier by the minute:
Russian Air Force 🇷🇺 Ka-52s, Mi-17s and what look like Mi-24/35s at an unspecified field at Valuyki.— Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) February 17, 2022
There is an unused airfield at 50.223421°N 38.110431°E with a long building like the one seen in the video. I believe this is the geolocation. https://t.co/lSAMPfv9eQ pic.twitter.com/UQhOJWUrRG
More to come after midnight UTC tonight with tomorrow’s thread.
02.17.22 0500 ET UPDATE:
Here we go, and as one of the better Twitter accounts from Europe Marqs just posted:
The trading of heavy shelling in Donetsk and Lugansk regions is not a good start:
Heavy shelling seems to be ongoing in multiple places across the front. This video is reportedly from Mariinka:pic.twitter.com/KJ4TUlB4Mp— marqs (@MarQs__) February 17, 2022
The UK Daily Mail has picked up on this activity also:
Is this the trigger for WAR? Artillery fire rings out in eastern Ukraine as Kiev’s forces and Russian-backed rebels blame each other for shelling of kindergarten amid fears Putin will use the strike as a pretext for invasion
Camouflage tents and vehicle tracks are visible just north of the bridge in high-resolution images. https://t.co/zLI24FEGCN— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 17, 2022
If indeed that bridge is still up in the next 3 days, something really bad is on the immediate horizon. I still think it will not start until the February 20-23rd window.
Burning documents perhaps?
Reports of smoke escaping from the Russian embassy in Kiev. pic.twitter.com/L2E7FPUNQf— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 17, 2022
Armed guard on a Russian military train, not very common. https://t.co/e77p2L89tY— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) February 17, 2022
Meanwhile, America’s “intelligence” community continues to provide fodder for the Russian state media (via RT):
The US defense/intel community is providing the propaganda, no reason for the Russians to use ZeroHedge or “other” infiltrated media.
If Russia intended to do a deep ground invasion, it would need to use multiple armies organized into echelons with likely 2-3 axes of advance. If units based in some of these areas reinforce another grouping, it isn’t a good sign, including for units leaving Crimea or Belarus. https://t.co/doCk9AXfmi pic.twitter.com/mKwtv7Sgyz— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 17, 2022
And more…distraction or?
Zvezda says that around 20 ships from the Caspian Flotilla will take part in an exercise in the Caspian, including the Grad Sviyazhsk, Uglich, Velikiy Ustyug Buyan-M MRK; Astrakhan and Makhachkala Buyan MRK; and Dagestan Project 11661 missile ship.https://t.co/YM3d61IyKl pic.twitter.com/UnnVmgcNhW— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 17, 2022
Almost as if on schedule:
Seeing reports of sporadic shelling by separatist forces against Ukrainian positions. https://t.co/ZcH11wxBNx— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 17, 2022
And a major “red flag” about this shelling exchange between both sides in the Donbass region this morning:
The speed at which the Russian state media picked up and ran with this story is highly unusual. About 10-15 mins from first reports in telegram channels to Sputnik running the story.— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) February 17, 2022
The event itself isn’t that unusual though, unless we start hearing about casualties. https://t.co/aluM31edYR
Stay tuned to Telegram and other social media folks as this story could develop rapidly. I will provide a daily summary at 1700 ET today.
And before I crash for a fresh 5 hours or so of sleep, here is the headline of the night via Der Spiegel’s international version. It’s a “wow” by any standard of journalism in the modern era:
Wow. The German government just conceded what the BoJo and Bidenista juntas never wanted to admit. How? Check out this excerpt:
Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic were interested in joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which was a source of concern to the Russian president. Of course, Yeltsin noted, every country can decide for itself what alliance it would like to be a part of. But the Russian public, he continued, saw the eastern expansion of NATO as “as a sort of neo-isolation” of Russia, a factor, he insisted, that must be taken into account. Yeltsin also made a reference to the Two Plus Four Treaty pertaining to Germany’s reunification in 1990. “The spirit of the treaty,” he wrote, “precludes the option of expanding the NATO zone into the East.”
That letter marked the first time that Russia had accused the West of having broken its word. And despite the fact that the Americans rejected the accusation, a resolution to the conflict has never been found – a situation which has had far-reaching consequences stretching to the present-day. There is essentially no other historical issue that has poisoned relations between Moscow and the West as much in the last three decades as the disagreement over what, precisely, was agreed to in 1990.
It is a historical reminder of a stab in the back of what the newly liberated Russians thought would mean peace in their time. Instead Clinton, Soros, and the West broke their word and expanded rapidly to create a “world” police force.
The backfire on this is now.
On to tonight’s headlines and tomorrow’s as presented before…
Slightly more interesting than the BM-27 in this footage IMO, is the likely SOF column travelling with transports flying red flags, along with the orange cargo warnings, this is a strong indicator they are carrying ammunition. https://t.co/erorJzYnsS pic.twitter.com/2FyR4c7vX3— tom (@tom_bullock_) February 15, 2022
Needless to say, everything is awesome, right?
Unlike most of the equipment deployed to Tomarovka and elsewhere in Belgorod that are mostly from the Western Military District and 1st Tank Army, T-90A tanks are almost exclusively in service with Southern Military District units. https://t.co/H4itZS00CY— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 16, 2022
Nothing bad can happen there, right?
Everything is awesome?
I don’t know about you, but that sounds like a good life to me.
Welp, that’s reassuring, sort of.
From the BBC, earlier today:
“Some of the (Russian) bases are very close to the Ukrainian border, some are as close as 10 km so it doesn’t change anything,” military analyst @pmakela1 tells @BBCNews. He also dismisses the #FinnishModel for Ukraine. #RussiaUkraine Full programme here: https://t.co/59n7zlDtzn pic.twitter.com/vtGPvQmAsc— Kasia Madera (@BBCKasiaMadera) February 16, 2022
And even “more training”…
An assembly of Russian Navy amphibious ships off the coast of Sevastopol.— Granger (@GrangerE04117) February 16, 2022
Included in this group are the six LSTs that left port on the afternoon of February 14. pic.twitter.com/xUinDiYMhi
But it is just “an exercise” or is it…
Thankfully, Vladimir Putin is not the “aggressive” KGB sort…
Sleep tight folks, I’ll be back with more after 0400 tomorrow.