And here we go as things get crazier day by day…
UPDATED 16:31 ET:
Three very interesting developments this afternoon on the pre-war front.
First and foremost, the US Embassy is closing in Kiev as expected and relocating to Lviv:
Lviv, Ukraine map location versus the projected Western offensive I have outlined previously where the Russian military flanks Kiev and cuts the nation in two meeting in Transnistria.
Secondly, the Kirov class battlecruiser, the Pytor Velikiy sortied from the Murmansk area into the North Atlantic today. These are the largest nuclear weapons capable “line of battle” surface vessels in the Russian fleet and the world:
Kirov-class battlecruiser Pyotr Velikiy has sortied from Severomorsk https://t.co/NRHeqLHphT pic.twitter.com/7jKjSIDl4o— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 14, 2022
Lastly, a new indicator that perhaps the final preparations are still under way as observed in the Tweet below:
Russian field hospital arriving to Belgorod. https://t.co/BOMMpB7Dwc— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) February 14, 2022
Although a rushed set up for a field hospital could take as little as 4-6 hours to properly assemble, odds are the Russians will use 48-72 hours to move staff and supplies into position considering it’s close border location.
Thus this author stands by the February 20-23rd window for any overt military action.
CBS News joins the fray with more unnamed sources providing scare tactic headlines:
Russian units near Ukraine moved into “attack positions,” U.S. official says
Russia has moved some long-range artillery and rocket launchers into firing position, threatening Ukraine, according to a U.S. official.
Weird. If this was such a severe event with a lot of weight behind it, doesn’t one think that the fat guy at the Pentagon or General Lipstick would say something too?
Then again, searching for the “Wednesday” date announcement on Twitter yields what? Yeah, everyone guessed it; #CNNisFakeNews:
The story just never ends with the word “imminent” roughly translated into Monday thru Friday, maybe Saturday and sometimes Sunday with the US “intelligence” leaks. I preparation for the Wednesday invasion, President Zelensky of Ukraine announced his plan (via RT mind you):
Ukraine announces ‘invasion date’ plan
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared February 16 – when the US claimed Russia might “invade” Ukraine – a day of national unity. In a decree signed on Monday, he ordered the playing of the national anthem and display of flags and flag ribbons around the country.
“It is said that February 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it a day of unity,”Zelensky said on Monday evening in an address to Ukrainians. “On this day, we will fly our national flags, put on blue-and-yellow ribbons and show our unity to the entire world.”
I think I would pass on that and ask for twin Ma Deuces myself, but whatever.
Meanwhile Boris the Boozer and Biden the Senile continue to try to see who can be the bigger Chamberlain (via the UK Daily Mail):
Last push for peace: Boris and Biden agree ‘a window for diplomacy’ in Ukraine remains and call for Putin to ‘step back from threats’ – but Zelensky goes on TV to warn he still expects Russia to attack on Wednesday
Good luck with that and the Wednesday prediction date. Ships, planes, and BTGs are still rolling in through at least Friday.
Meanwhile the French OSINT monitoring group noted the emptying of many Russian bases:
Interesting secondary choice for identifying marks versus the crosses used earlier:
Looks like aerial ID marks painted on many tanks in this train. Been kinda waiting when these start to appear. https://t.co/zmTNr7LWfi pic.twitter.com/dutrbTCAWS— Aki Heikkinen (@akihheikkinen) February 14, 2022
And it only took less than a day for the Ukrainian government to follow Washington, D.C.’s orders and walk back Sunday night’s statement:
“It has nothing to do with NATO”— BBC Breakfast (@BBCBreakfast) February 14, 2022
Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko clarifies there will be no change of policy to become a member of NATO on #BBCBreakfast.https://t.co/m9eGqs1M5L pic.twitter.com/EpyAPKTPfR
The President of Belarus delivers a blunt message that I’m sure is making the Pentagon cringe as they have no control over that nation either:
Needless to say, as the clock ticks down, the Ukrainians are deviating from their duty as sacrificial lambs for the Pentagon and helping Biden’s failing regime:
🗣️”We are trying to find the best way out.”— BBC Radio 5 Live (@bbc5live) February 13, 2022
Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK Vadym Prystaiko has told @StephenNolan his country might agree not to join @NATO if it would avert war with Russia.
It would mean the country abandoning a goal written into its constitution.
The 1st GTA is in position less than 40 miles from Kharkov, so that should raise some eyebrows:
Looks like 1st Tank Army in Seretino, Belgorod Oblast. MSTA-S, Borisoglebsk-2, and more. pic.twitter.com/DERomxBpgk— Michael Sheldon (@Michael1Sheldon) February 14, 2022
To say that the amount of equipment and movement from Russia’s East Asian forces is an understatement, as The Real Fly illustrates:
Extent of Russian military movements from the Far East. This is some training exercise. pic.twitter.com/ct910bD4lj— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 14, 2022
Not your mother’s normal Russian military “exercise” obviously:
R-149MA1 command and control vehicles, a large number of Tigr-M vehicles (16 with Arbalet-DM turrets), and BTR-82A. Likely from the VDV’s 45th Spetsnaz Brigade or one of the GRU/GU’s spetsnaz brigades. https://t.co/bnkIm99eaS pic.twitter.com/7G9U1L9x1E— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 14, 2022
About that European Union superiority question…
#Russia has now responded. It says that it doesn’t conduct any unusual military activity on its territory and that #Ukraine’s request under the OSCE Vienna document is inadmissible https://t.co/y63HILE7LS— Rikard Jozwiak (@RikardJozwiak) February 13, 2022
For some reason Putin, like the United States, does not seem impressed by treaties and declarations.
Meanwhile, more units moving into not so unanticipated positions:
Sentinel-2 imagery of the old airbase on Lake Donuzlav – Crimea this morning does show a lots of black dots, and other signs of activity within the area indicated, that weren’t there on the 10th. https://t.co/prDLHuLceP pic.twitter.com/d7cesDzNOb— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) February 13, 2022
And now for all the Jake Sullivan’s of the world, more bad predictions that did not happen on any day:
Then this beauty from the early morning edition of the New York Post:
Russian ambassador says Moscow doesn’t ‘give a s–t’ about sanctions
Excerpt from this hilarious piece:
“Excuse my language, but we don’t give a s–t about all their sanctions,” Viktor Tatarintsev told Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet in an interview published on Saturday.
“We have already had so many sanctions and in that sense they’ve had a positive effect on our economy and agriculture,” Tatarinstsev said, adding that Russia has become “self-sufficient” and will weather any economic penalties imposed by the US and its allies.
I guess the truth being spoken so bluntly like that might make Blinken or Sullivan cry. What a mean person Tatarintsev is.
Russian equipment in Veselaya Lopan, ~15km from the border with #Ukraine, reportedly yesterdaypic.twitter.com/weLj5t95YN— marqs (@MarQs__) February 14, 2022
That doesn’t look like staging for an “exercise” to me, but then again I don’t have any rank in the Russian military. No prewar start would be complete however without the blaring headlines from the UK Daily Mail:
A pretext for war? Russian TV propagandists claim ‘thousands of civilians have been tortured and savagely killed’ by Ukraine after US warned of ‘false flag’ plot to spark invasion
Of course the fact that CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, BBC, etc. is also “state propaganda” would never be apparent to these reporters because they help distribute it from D.C. and London.
This thread will be updated throughout the day as time permits, and more added as new breaks.