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Estimated Timetable for Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

The news tonight is not good on any front regarding the Eastern European crisis.

The irresponsible news outlets like Bloomberg have already posted up Fake News in the past week to reflect their bias and try to either destabilize world financial markets, or they are so incompetent that the world “journalist” is a bigger joke than it was before:

The retraction was just sad and pathetic:

Sort of like publishing a newspaper story that says “Japan Bombs Pearl Harbor” on December 3, 1941, eh ladies?

Then there is the story of the United States Government, a pathetic shell of what it was after September 11, 2001 and worse, totally compromised by corruption and vapid intellectuals unable to understand why and how we won the Cold War.

The National Security Advisor to the President of the United States actually went on live television Sunday morning to allege that an invasion of Ukraine could happen as soon as tomorrow (via ABC-News):

Just a reminder, that is the very same Jake Sullivan in the email below:

I think that should pretty much discredit anything and anyone in the Biden Junta, so let us all partake in some serious review of what this author believes will be the order of battle and timetable for an invasion of Ukraine.

I. The End of the Olympics

The Accuweather forecast for Kharkiv(Kharkov) should provide some hints:

Granted, they are not the most “accurate” forecaster available, but the fourteen day forecast gives one a chance to review the invasion window, which I believe to be between Sunday night February 20 through February 23rd. The weather conditions on the 20th would be ideal for a joint missile, airborne, and air bombing campaign on key positions and strategic bases throughout Ukrainian territory.

Further supporting this thesis is the arrival time of Russian naval assets still currently transiting from Tartus in Syria after resupply and the North Atlantic.

Further movements indicate that after the missile tests near Ireland, those vessels will also transit the Mediterranean and head to Sevastopol in the Black Sea.

The Russians never launch “rash” attacks which will upset the entire global strategic balance thus it is logical to conclude that until all vessels from the Pacific, Northern, and Baltic fleets are assembled in Crimea nothing will happen. The estimated window for this would be between February 13 up to February 16 along with loading the amphibious assault vessels, resupply, and rest and relaxation for crews before action begins.

II. Structure of Attack to Initiate First Contact

Without getting into the weeds, the prospect of taunting the Ukrainian military or contract militias into doing something stupid without a false flag are pretty easy. Thus why I think the Russian 8th Guards Army along with the 1st and 2nd Donbass Corps will feint a rush towards the demarcation lines on our about February 18th or 19th.

After the Ukrainian forces lose their nerves and open up, a large scale artillery battle in the Donbass region will probably ensue inflaming nerves to a point where the Ukrainians rush reserve troops toward that region. The Russians will use OSINT against the West by feinting large numbers of troops from the 58th Army moving towards that region and where the 49th formerly was stationed. Once the 49th is fully based in Crimea over the next 10 days, the 58th will move into position for this feint.

On or about February 19 or 20, look for Spetsnaz and other special forces units to begin seizing key crossroads, bridges, and cutting communications points off from the Donbass front to further spice up the misdirection.

III. Mission One is Avoid Huge Civilian Casualties

Despite the portrayal of Vladimir Putin being a despotic murdering dictator, he’s a very intelligent analyst when it comes to global politics and playing the West on itself. Add in the fact that he will seriously engage with his general staff to develop a viable strategic and tactical approach to any action, versus the political version the US has adopted, and odds are the avoidance of civilian casualties is a logical assumption. With Germany already beginning to splinter from the NATO herd, odds are the invasion will either terrify and unite or more probably, further shatter the myth of the NATO mission in 2022.

Many analysts have been proclaiming that the Russians will launch direct attacks and seize major cities like Kiev, Kharkiv, and Odessa causing massive civilian casualties. These analysts are in the mindset of the last wars, thinking this is the old Soviet Union, not a streamlined modern professional military that has a historical bad taste in its mouth from fighting rag tag civilians in sandals residing in caves and worse, the Chechen’s.

This is why using a map displaying estimated positions of all units as of January 15, 2022 via the Wall Street Journal, I have once again displayed my estimated order of battle and attack on the Ukrainian military should the war begins:

Courtesy of the Wall Street Journal

I shall try to explain my drawing as follows from the Southeast then west then north.

  1. Donbass Bluff will be executed to perfection drawing armored and other reserves away from the Dnieper River at Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia towards Donetsk and Lugansk. This will automatically weaken the rear and provide an opportunity for the forces in Crimea and the 49th Army to break out and seize bridgeheads without directly destroying those cities or engaging large scale attacks on the civilian population.
  2. Amphibious assault west of Odessa will succeed along with a naval blockade sealing off all NATO or other nation’s assistance by sea to Ukraine. Once the beach head is established, the armored units will move in towards Transnistria and encircling those units in the Odessa pocket.
  3. Special missile and air attacks will be engaged to eliminate all Ukrainian Air Force bases in the first two hours of combat. Airborne and special forces units will also be targeted with a large assault reducing their combat effectiveness by north of 60% on the first day. The UkAF will cease being functional opposition on day 1.
  4. A large armored thrust into the heart of Ukraine from Belarus on two fronts will drive south to unite with the Crimean forces in Transnistria will occur the minute the war begins. Major combat will be avoided and units isolate along the way with artillery and air superiority. Mop up operations of Ukrainian units in the middle of the country will be engaged in at first light.
  5. There will be five major armored and helicopter borne assaults in the Northeast of the country. Secondary units will feint an attack through the Chernobyl zone tying down Ukrainian forces but the main assault will be a march to the Dnieper River to cut the country up into killing zones and preventing resupply. Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia will be the only major cities targeted for seizure leaving the remainder of those forces isolated in pockets to the rear to either surrender or be cut to pieces.

If I am correct about these estimates, odds are it means the Russians have learned all of the mistakes that American forces have made in the last fifty years, in addition to the blunders of the Soviet Union attempting classic World War II maneuver and fire missions. A rapid assault to isolate and force a surrender is the most logical assumption based on the current structure of forces deployed in the region. There is nothing to be gained economically, politically, or militarily by laying waste to every major Ukrainian city and killing tens of thousands of civilians.

From the moment the conflict begins on or about February 20th, I estimate the duration of major combat operations to be finished during the week of March 16th. There will be zealots who fight on but with light Russian casualties relative to the Ukrainians (I estimate a 3.5/4 to 1 kill ratio with this strategy), there will be little to fight for once President Zelensky surrenders and cuts his deal with Putin.

In the end a rapid war with light civilian casualties and the West in total disarray along with the meltdown of NATO would be a win not just for Moscow, but for those nations refusing to sign on to the West’s globalist programs. The biggest winner of the war will lose zero troops, zero credibility, and zero financially and it will become quite obvious:

The People’s Republic of China.

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  1. therevolutionwas therevolutionwas 02/06/2022

    Just because you use John Galt as a handle does not mean you have my trust.

    • 02/06/2022

      Never asked for it. Everyone is free to use their own best judgement. When I was on the radio (via Steve Quayle’s show on shortwave) during the 07-08 time period, I had to build the trust up for my audience. And yes, this blog has been published ever since then.

  2. riverrider riverrider 02/07/2022

    your scenario is sound but leaves out one major variable, nukes. yes, i think our leaders are that crazy, and desperate to cover their asses. God help us.

  3. allah_speaking allah_speaking 02/07/2022

    It won’t go down even remotely the way you think it will.

    The first thing to go will be NATO Command and Control centers.

    • 02/07/2022

      NATO will be ignored and bypassed. There will be no conflict with NATO, just a disastrous humiliation which shows just how impotent Senile Joe really is. Watch and see. If NATO does engage, then everything I have said is moot and we won’t be able to discuss it due to high radiation levels worldwide. Oh, and no internet or electricity.

  4. Bear Claw Chris Lapp Bear Claw Chris Lapp 02/08/2022

    I believe the cooler Russian heads will prevail. Vlad has shown his smarts in all ways leading up to this.

    • John Galt John Galt Post author | 02/08/2022

      Under my piece The End of Empire, I outlined the logical reasons that China and Russia could move against our interests now. It’s actually a geopolitical shift which could explain upcoming event.s Remember, Vlad is retiring soon, and some very hardcore individuals will replace his leadership group.

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