I’ll keep this short and sweet folks.
I expect to see a NFP number north of 300,000 with the U-3 rate remaining around 3.6%. This is do to the piss poor seasonal adjustments implemented with the new revisions program initiated by the BLS this year which is distorting the birth/death model severely. The key data to observe is the average hourly earnings, especially the year over year metric.
If the bond markets close above the warning benchmarks with the 2 year above 5% and 10 year above 4%, look for massive market turbulence and repositioning into next week.
Once the earnings circus begins, then the S&P 500 can make one more run at 4500 before the inflation data causes the Fed to realize they may have created a nightmare for the entire US financial system.
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