The departure of Vodka Nancy from Taiwan as this piece is being typed now diverts attention to the Chinese Communist Party and the reaction to her visit to Taipei. After a week of threats, chest thumping, and particularly nasty rhetoric, President Xi Jinping now finds the future of his leadership on the line much sooner than he would prefer .
Thus far the rhetoric is more of a reminder that China sounds more like Iran threatening Israel than a real power like Russia which actually engaged in a war which is shifting the balance of global power.
The military drills announced around Taiwan might seem intimidating, but in reality it displays weakness and indecisiveness within the leadership of China at the highest level.
Once these drills are over, the question remains:
Is China ready for prime time to take on the American hegemony in the region, especially their own back yard?
At this point in time, the answer would appear to be “no.”
Pelosi of course could not leave without a parting shot to the Beijing government during her speech to the government in Taipei:
The problem with this type of rhetoric, the videos of Chinese military movements into cities and beaches along the Fujian coast is that a failure to take an actual course of action displays weakness to the people of China along with humiliating his military, a dangerous proposition indeed.
Of course a ChiCom standard scare the crap out of the locals with air raid sirens as Pelosi’s plane landed was necessary.
The videos allowed by the Beijing authorities was something to behold:
And of course the videos displayed on Chinese television and social media were designed to intimidate the US also.
In summation if the Chinese Communist Party allows this visit to stand with the in your face statements by Pelosi and the amateurs in DC, it portrays a weakness which could possibly lead to the downfall of Xi and his leadership team.
To correct this problem, Xi must act and quickly. Once Vodka Nancy begins to drink Seoul dry, the logical course for President Xi to engage in would be to seize the Taiwanese barrier islands off the coast of China and the one island closest to Taiwan, Penghu County.
By engaging in a “limited” invasion of Taiwan like this, it would push the United States into strong condemnation, however economically and militarily, there is nothing the junta in DC could do about it. In fact, the Biden regime would probably pressure the government in Taipei to turn a blind eye to the seizure and at most increase the shipment of some more forty year old weapons to the island nation as a reward for their subservience.
If Xi fails to seize those islands with a grand public display of the action, every nation in the region, most of his population, and certainly all of his military leadership will view President Xi as dishonorable and weak. By losing face in such a manner the instability it would create in Beijing and within the party might be an even more terrifying outcome as the global economy and peace in Asia could be put at greater risk. No one has considered the risk of a true anti-American hard line military leader assuming the role as President and head of the Chinese Communist Party in these times, especially as the economy deteriorates inside of China.
May we all live in interesting times, indeed.