18.04.20 18:15 ET
The advent of huckster driven “financial news” television has provided an expression which has served the average investor well during the past decade of central banker infused enthusiasm and speculation:
But alas my friends, this article is not about taking advantage of the coming dip and then surge in equity markets. This is about preparing for something for more serious which could be potentially heading out way:
The dip after wave 1 of the Chinese Coronavirus Pandemic.
A few weeks ago when I penned the article The Post Pandemic World, Part 3: Second Wave, I was thinking that we were going to entertain an strong first wave infection from the two variants of the coronavirus, the Washington State mutation and the European mutation which is impacting the northeastern U.S. so hard.
Upon further review and study, I am starting to comprehend what the large financial houses in America are preparing for by locking down credit to the housing industry and consumers along with their reading of the scientific community. I was wrong. This summer will probably not be the nightmare that many of us anticipated. In fact it might be that false reprieve our society has been looking for.
Just like the Spanish Flu during 1918.
The best way to analyze what is coming during the summer might well be similar to what occurred in the summer of 1918 and into the autumn. I have decided to mark up the popular graph being used by multiple websites to illustrate what I think is happening:
Let me outline what I believe are the logical assumptions then reset the time line for the graph displayed above.
- There are hopeful signs of therapeutic treatments being processed in the next few months. The news on the medical front was provided with another boost on Friday even though evidence of scientific fact was lacking as hope is overtaking logic and patience.
- The demands for opening up the economy are putting too much stress on the American and European population while in China the nation is opening up under orders from the Communist Party, ready or not. The consequences of the Communist Party actions in Beijing may well reverberate louder in the second half of this year.
- The seasonality for this virus has not been established by any reputable scientist or documentation, but there appears to be a downturn in the spread as evidenced by the infection rate in the Northern Hemisphere slowing. Unfortunately, the opposite is happening in the Southern Hemisphere and many third world nations which promotes the prospects of bad events during the upcoming winter season.
This is my estimate for the potential deaths (+/- 500,000) should the second wave hit without appropriate treatments, vaccine(s), and precautions:
I pray that I am wrong.
However if I am not, the period of time between the end of May 2020 and the first of October is the last dip the American people will have to buy and in this I mean to prepare.
What to Buy?
- PPE – There is going to be a massive shortage developing as government globally start to purchase all available inventory in anticipation of a second wave. But, if anyone can buy any personal preparation equipment this is the moment to do it. No matter what one can buy be it N95 or preferably P100, then do so. Rubbing alcohol, high powered cleaners, wipes, hand sanitizer, bleach, whatever one can find is critical.
- Foodstuffs – Freeze dried, canned, and MRE’s are the best options. Should the situation worsen, especially on the protein front, the ability to have long term food storage in case the worst case scenario develops is critical for survival.
- Protection – Needless to say, if one did not take advantage of this first wave, then the prices one will see in a few months will shock them. Guns and ammunition my friends are going to be in short, and then even shorter supply as our transportation grid breaks down during a probable second wave and the potential of martial law nationally becomes reality. Most individuals will find out quickly that they are on their own.
I could go on endlessly with the usual prepper suggestion list. Most individuals have no clue as to what it means to survive 2 days, much less 12 months without the local grocery store open. Should this disease progress, mutate, and become more lethal then all bets are off. In some areas, society will break down far beyond our imagination as American citizens. In other parts of the nation it will seem like business as usual.
During the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic, the disease had a strong apparent first wave which lulled everyone into a false sense of security once the death rate began to decline. Apparently the Wuhan Flu might well be following a similar pattern. If we are lucky it will flat line and the development of medical remedies will prevent a secondary, more lethal infection.
On the other hand, isn’t it wise to prepare for the worst and simply smile that one was able to survive what might turn out to be nothing more than “just the flu bro” as so many political experts proclaimed it was?